paulren's blog

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Introduction-a new era has begun.

June 28 th 2020.  Thai stocks endured a substantial sell off, as most everywhere else when the CV19 hit by mid March.  Stocks sold off on margin calls -and panic.  With Thai's health care system superior as compared to many other countries, record low interest rates' likely to persist besides some shares cash dividend yields at 4-6%, compared to the Thai 10 year Govt. yield at barely 1.3%, I in mid March turned maximum bullish right at the major market bottom.  Days later published my new "bottom fishing" model portfolio -to contributing members!  Scroll down at this front opening page, and see the blue ink -and then click on "read more".   Then, in early June, I here posted to member to take profit and ended my model which by then was up 32% vs., the SET up 26%.  Today, Thailand seemed to have conquered the CV19 virus, but just about killed its economy in the process.

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Likely 3 key global investor risks. A place to hide?

The likely 3 biggest global investor risks/changes going forward are:  China's potential real estate bubble unwinding,  W. Europe's hazardous banking industry persisting and USA's vast new political changes emerging...with D. Trump being the wild card in between.  While I would agree it looks unlikely Trump will prevail in the end, he has more then anything or anybody, exposed the serious shortcomings/flaws/dysfunction of the Washington consensus and their nauseating status quo.  At the same time there is a real possibility that when US voters get behind the curtain on November 8th, more then many expect will vote for drastic changes which only Trump can bring.  For better or worse.   Either or any of these,  I'd rather be hiding out in profitable, growing and dividend paying underleveraged Thai value stocks.

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Repatriation of Capital.

A former members writes me as follows:  my investment strategy has changed....Also, I am not convinced that Thailand is conducive to free capital movement a) generally and b) with a government that can change the rules at a whim.  I shan't be investing directly in Thailand,  so I will not renew my subscription.
Here is how I answered:   Thanks for the mail.  I know I can help create new wealth here over time with my viewpoints and have been at it for over 25 years.  Yet, not sure where you get the capital outward movement handicap worry, pense?  As for as long as I have been at it here, even before, there has never been any problem regarding outward capital repatriation.  Nor anybody doing it correctly reported to us they had a problems.  As long as one can show the original capital was brought to Thailand to begin with, there are never any issues remitting back and this Thai tax free to individuals.
We heard this for already too long.  Who talks such nonsense..Swiss or German bankers?  This will not happen:  as if so, would instantly flash the international biz.  news and then no new foreign capital (institutional or individual) would ever flow into...


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