paulren's blog

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Introduction-a new era has begun.

November 21 2020:  Against much odds and confounding the bears, Thailand's SET redounded nicely while so surprising many.  My model portfolio published for members further increased its lead over the SET benchmark index. To me it was outright stupid to be negative on Bangkok Bank  (BBL 121) which dropped below 100 Baht, just a few weeks ago. Presently I am very bullish on STGT (72) where I just today published my latest core reasons why with high enthuse into 2021. Rubber/examination gloves is the new Gold and Thailand is a global leader.

October 26th. Thailand's stock market took a turn for the worse when student lead rebellion emerged with gusto over the past week or so. Changes, often for the better, require turmoil to get there. The turmoil is now a sagging market along with CV19 which does not seem globally tamed.  There are select stocks/companies which are still doing well here and will emerge as winners but at this juncture "the lower tide is sinking all boats". The Thai Baht is at last weakening some which should bode well for some exporters. However the economy remains far from stabilized with still much uncertainty abound.  There is some light at the end of the tunnel with vaccines and better cures coming on CV19, but most govt.s seem determined to reign in the grips and use this health catastrophe to reduce broad freedoms, some perhaps for good? Let's hope not. Some new normal will re-emerge at some point and stock markets...

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Likely 3 key global investor risks. A place to hide?

The likely 3 biggest global investor risks/changes going forward are:  China's potential real estate bubble unwinding,  W. Europe's hazardous banking industry persisting and USA's vast new political changes emerging...with D. Trump being the wild card in between.  While I would agree it looks unlikely Trump will prevail in the end, he has more then anything or anybody, exposed the serious shortcomings/flaws/dysfunction of the Washington consensus and their nauseating status quo.  At the same time there is a real possibility that when US voters get behind the curtain on November 8th, more then many expect will vote for drastic changes which only Trump can bring.  For better or worse.   Either or any of these,  I'd rather be hiding out in profitable, growing and dividend paying underleveraged Thai value stocks.

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Repatriation of Capital.

A former members writes me as follows:  my investment strategy has changed....Also, I am not convinced that Thailand is conducive to free capital movement a) generally and b) with a government that can change the rules at a whim.  I shan't be investing directly in Thailand,  so I will not renew my subscription.
Here is how I answered:   Thanks for the mail.  I know I can help create new wealth here over time with my viewpoints and have been at it for over 25 years.  Yet, not sure where you get the capital outward movement handicap worry, pense?  As for as long as I have been at it here, even before, there has never been any problem regarding outward capital repatriation.  Nor anybody doing it correctly reported to us they had a problems.  As long as one can show the original capital was brought to Thailand to begin with, there are never any issues remitting back and this Thai tax free to individuals.
We heard this for already too long.  Who talks such nonsense..Swiss or German bankers?  This will not happen:  as if so, would instantly flash the international biz.  news and then no new foreign capital (institutional or individual) would ever flow into...

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