We are not investment-financial advisors/nor fund managers, just publishers of unbiased & experienced/professional viewpoints. "INTEGRITY IS MY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE".
Thaistocks.com is an intelligent investment club sharing unbiased, objective & professional viewpoints full time, since April 1997. Through this media I have here posted proprietary professional viewpoints, articles, over 100 in-person company interviews with managing directors full time since 1997. Here are added value investor intelligence on all aspects to successful long term investing. In early 2017, I turned increasingly Thai stocks frustrated -and so bearish. But the massive SET drop of in mid March 2020, was a "game changer"! (see below).
Why is the US stock market in general doing OK, while (its) economies are not? Stocks appear overvalued to those whom don't understand stock valuations are inversely related to the level of interest rates, which have gone to 0 or even negative in many developed countries. Also stocks are driven by liquidity which is huge in these now dire times.
September 8 2020. I remain broadly SET cautious. Thailand tamed the Covit19 virus in a big way but at a great price to its economy. The low economic nadir point has not been reached yet -and lots of leadership confusion remains; not least on the zero tourist front which was a main economic driver in recent years. Its anybody's guess when tourists will be allowed back? In the meantime politics is heating up while broad economic numbers keep pointing downwards. Yet stock markets are always forward looking...its a market of stocks here rather then a stock market and while I have a few solid ideas at present, I remain lethargic on the market overall.
May 22th, 2020. After turning max. bullish in mid March (see just below) now with the SET up some 30% since, I have today turned more cautious not least due to broad earnings downgrades starting in the 2Q -and as I perceive the market likely now ahead of itself. Bravado yes on Thailand's ability to abate the CV19 virus, but alas at the cost of a serious economic damage, lead by the collapse of the important tourist/related industry. On June 7th, I ended my model portfolio shown to members with a 32% gain.
March 14th, 2020. Some Thai stocks have now become an investor-bargains, much worth considering. Over the past 3 years at this web site, I increasingly expressed investor frustration over some industry practices, broad market high prices besides broker discrepancies -and so increasingly endured discouragement. Yet, over the last dire few weeks much has changed with many Thai stocks loosing half their value. This is so a game changer...yet beware of "wall flowers" and some "bad apples". :)
The market here, along most others, has all but crashed and most big and smaller shares have lost 1/3 to 1/2 or more of their value, all around the CoronaVirus19 (CV19) fears...more like panic. It pays to start asking is it panic, crisis or investor
rare opportunity? Only due to the market meltdown, and investor bargains which go begging, I with vigor claim its a new opportunity! So for the first time in 3 years have turned broadly Thai stocks bullish. (Starting March 14th 2020, SET index at 1128).
Thai Shares have at present broadly priced in a sustained economic recession and much lower expected earnings for many quarters to come. But if you take the view year 2020 now being a lost year and earnings bouncing back in 2021, one can make a compelling investor case and I want part of it. Thailand has shown to have a way of coping with the V19 outbreak based on its population. The infection rate is lower compared to the top 30 countries so far. Various Thai hospitals are now offering testing for V19, and it seems for whatever reason this virus does not like tropical/hot weather. Vs. notably USA which by far still can't get its hands on enough test kits, need a doctor prescription along with some run-around...and new cases increasing by the day. Thailand's impressive response is not surprising in light of the inaugural (USA) Johns Hopkins University Global Health Security Index (2019) survey which assessed the preparedness of 195 countries for epidemics and pandemics. It ranked as the sixth best prepared nation in the world and was the most prepared upper middle income country. Thai people are taking this very seriously and conforming to temporary stay home directives.
Thai interest rates are the lowest ever, the Baht currency super-rise has been tamed -yet looks stable and the Thai health care system is praised the world over, as is now demonstrated. The strong currency in recent years much damaged the export and tourist industries and turned the country far less competitive on a number of fronts. This was at first positive but then turned into a villain which now has been tamed. In the meantime, the winds have been "blown out of the sails" on US stocks where their historic bull run has come to an abrupt end -for many good reasons. While US stocks became overvalued and over hyped, Thai stocks are now among the cheapest ever adjusted for the level of record low interest rates. Many now dividend yield yearly 5-7%, or above. Compared to the 10 year Thai govt. bond yield of barely 1.3%, this is now the biggest divergence ever observed! Thai politics is as always messy and as shown in the past many business can prosper despite -as has been shown over many years.
IF you are interested in pursuing an experienced investor bargain hunting strategy in SE Asia's second largest economy with shares washed out despite some positives emerging, feel free to contact me at: firstname.lastname@example.org With 30 years on location full time engaged in Thai stocks and a professional background, you can see my resume here: https://thaistocks.com/content/about-us-0
Thai IPO's average year 2018 performance are not shown.
For transparency, Thai brokers and/or SET should publish composite average IPO % performance for year 2018. Here tabulated at -9% return assuming equal IPO Baht investment in every, at the offering price. Yet, this is not representative as some of the best performing were near or impossible to get any.. Conclusion on this yardstick, the Thai retail investors did overall poorly investing in IPO's here in year 2018 and 2019 does not look any better. The largest IPO, CRC listed at 42 Baht in early Feb.2020, lost 25% of its value since first traded just 3 weeks ago. As of March 14th 2020.
"In SE Asia there are many great stock investor opportunities as the mega institutions only chase large caps. In fact some 70-75% of the Thai economy is generated by smaller or mid-sized companies. Hence there are real "diamonds in the rough"...and these "taste great and are less filling"... but you will not find them in billion dollar institutional portfolios and rarely advocated by Thai brokers." Paul A. Renaud.
Thaistocks.com excels at investor performance over time through the rational and responsible value investing concept -as seen objectively from a pro's investor point of view. Value investing here means growing earnings per share over time along with high dividends in understandable & what I perceive to be good investments, away from the tourist industry. We are not stock promoters nor punters, never receive any remuneration of any kind from any listed company! We here in the past published responsible & unbiased viewpoints, uninterrupted since 1997.
As here documented to members all along: the full track record from year 2003 to inclusive 2015. Since year 2003, I regularly posted 6-month model portfolio's which can be accessed only by members. Hence a documented track record as witnessed by all members all along until year 2016.
"I have appreciated your viewpoints this past year and am very happy with the results Thanks again. I much look forward to reading the most intelligent economic/investment writing about Thailand to be found anywhere in the world. Especially in terms of the performance of my investments. But also in expanding my knowledge of the workings of the SET." A Member comment.
Comments given in the past by professionals: Click here -
30 year expertise, viewpoints and independent research -full time- so to help create new wealth through the value and high dividend investing theme. This through my long on location expert knowledge, experience and strong connections in the segment of smaller and medium-sized Thai companies. Thai Stock Exchange is open to foreign investors since 1976. I know it like very few others here.. despite many traps for some of us its the right and rational way to higher investor returns over time -along with often lower than market volatility.
We are not stock promoters and never receive fees/payments in any kind from any companies we follow or view positively here! I focus 100% on what I do best which is finding high dividend stock "gems" and then so shared to our members. ****
For 30 on location I have with focus, passion, high ethics and determination excelled giving viewpoints as seen from the Thai stock value investors' point of view.. The many years continued model portfolio's track record -as witnessed by our members all along- is validated as follows:
Calendar Years: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014:
% change each year: 88% (14)% 82% 32% 42% (40)% 55% 50% 17.8% 45% (year 2012), 12.8% (year 2013), 37.95% (year 2014)
Simple average, over past 12 years: 34.7 %, per year.
Geometric average, over past 12 years: 28.8 %, per year.
Above shown track record is with no financial leverage...no stock shorting or hedging/puts which larger portfolios employ. I realize, this is "armchair investing" and not necessarily my own, yet it's all based on documented model portfolio to contributing members all along. Of course future returns will go down and up and there are never guarantees. Past performance is never a guarantee to future returns and since 2016 smaller and mid cap stock have overall much lagged the SET index, as I here have started to point already 3 years ago. This lagging has continued well into late 2019. But the V19 horror has become a game changer and a new order is emerging.
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Paul A. Renaud.
Paul A. Renaud
from Morgan Stanley USA, to 30 years on location analyzing the Thai stock market.
"Devoted to growth, low valuations and high dividends." " Integrity is my competitive advantage".