Introduction

PaulRen's picture
Submitted by PaulRen on Sun, 28/06/2015 - 7:00am
  Thaistocks.com is about value & rational investing since 1997 and  April 30 '23, marked the 26th anniversary.  The longest continuously running web site in Thailand.  For over a quarter-of-a-century here bring knowledgeable & responsible Thai stocks investor acumen -while often creating superior investor returns.   Here I publish my own view points.  We are not investment-financial advisors/nor fund managers -just publishers of unbiased, experienced & professional viewpoints with over 30 years of experience.       "Integrity has always been my competitive advantage". 
 

Here is the link to my very last Thai stock company article, viewpoint:   https://thaistocks.com/content/brr-buriram-sugar-buy-view-here-why#comment-24905   
"Your only as good as your last movie", an old rogue Hollywood saying.
I predict a soft landing for Thailand in 2023 and growth seems to be accelerating of late -with no Bank fall outs!   Its been correctly pointed out that there is much speculative activity on and around Thai stocks.  But this is not all bad as it so also means there are investor-bargains to be had which then artificially ignored. Yet pay very high current dividends.  Yet into May, DELTA stock, a much speculated overvalued stock here fo many months, finally price collapsed.  
 
Quality & long established listed companies which yield 6-7% tax-favored dividends & growing.  With the Thai elections on May 14th and some changes likely for the better I dare to to remain positive on my pruned list of 7-9 high dividend choices...shared with contributing members along with good reasons why they are as well likely growth stocks in years to come.  
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All stock investors fear so called “value traps” i.e. “Wall Flowers” -which rarely flourish -stock price wise.  Fair enough.  But the opposite is true as well -rarely explained!  Inefficiently priced value choices. Where brokers and institutions' alike only consider large cap. stocks, ignoring the rest... a practice here for decades.  Only  because their handicap on demanding high trading liquidity.  Most individual investors don’t have this constraint and so have a true -long in making- mkt. pricing inefficacy, advantage!  Here that makes all the difference -as such are "less filling & taste great" choices.  Often paying double the SET averaged in dividend yields, like around 5%.  While many have superior long term growth rates along with less correlation to Western markets.  I know them here like few others.  
 
On the Thai IPO market/process: The first week of November 2022, the biggest IPO of 2022, Betagro (BTG 26.5),  flopped.  As so often here, the investment bankers overpriced this deal hoping speculators would "save the day".  A long practice here which may be starting to flounder.  Almost so to camouflage post- Thai IPO performance: there remain no 3, 6, 12 month follow-ups on how Thai IPO' stock prices-perform, post their IPO's listings.  Like is a published practice in most other mkts.  Some 5 months later, April 27th, 2023:  BTG, IPO which was priced at 40 Baht presently lingers some 33% below its offering price -even while the SET index dropped by far less or around 7% during this same time. ***

Things can be a bit off on the Thai stock market  -while ***Thai brokers are overall just average, as are their stock choices.  In stock-markets however this can be a real advantage as it often means mis-pricings to take advantage of!   In US and other markets, now out of vogue, this is more difficult as there are ample good brokers besides plenty smart investors & analysts there...hence difficult to beat them.  Less so in Thailand. US stocks as well appear out of  favor for now as I have argued since late 2021.  Its unfortunate that many expats and others do not grasp this and just assume "things in life which could be better are often best avoided".  Not so in stock markets where aberrations can truly be an investor advantage.  As here shown for 25 years. Presently, Thai stocks as I pick them have a rather low mkt. correlation with the US/EU.  October 11 2022.

"INTEGRITY IS MY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE".     Since April 30 1997, I here full time and with passion deliver professional, objective, unbiased Thai stock market investor opinions & views.  Creating substantial new wealth -over time.  Visited in person over 150 CFO/CEO's of Thai listed companies. Then often write about companies reports-views & pictures.  The long record shows this through regularly published model portfolios.  Fully documented latest investor returns, see this link (but first register as a free member, see just below):  https://thaistocks.com/content/ending-2nd-model-portfolio-today-stay-tuned   Free registration takes less then 2 minutes,  pls. visit this link:  https://thaistocks.com/user/register 

My message to many of you:  Investor apathy...many are "permabears", where one deliberately or not considers worst case scenarios and solely see and fear downside in any investment -resulting in never dare taking the plunge.  Stuck to investor mediocrity for years..in good part due to the ever dominant negative spinning news by mass-media.    
 

Thaistocks.com is an intelligent investment club sharing unbiased, objective & professional viewpoints full time, since April 1997.  Through this media I have posted proprietary professional viewpoints, articles, over 100 in-person company interviews with managing directors full time since April 1997.  I present added value investor& unbiased intelligence viewpoints on all aspects to successful long term  investing in Thai stocks.  In early 2017, I turned increasingly Thai stocks frustrated -and so bearish.  But the massive SET drop of in mid March 2020, was a "game changer"!    

Why are US stocks and others in general doing rather well, while (its) economies are barely recovering?  Stocks appear overvalued to those whom don't understand that valuations' are inversely related to the level of interest rates, which have gone to zero or even negative in some developed countries.  Stock prices are often driven by liquidity and sentiment buoyant in these dire times -but getting better with a CV19 vaccine roll out, en masse.  Stock markets are always forward looking.  As/if US interest rates increase both in the US and in Thailand this will work against stock prices, especially highly valued technology stocks.  But at the same time, economies are now coming back due to massive vaccination in the developed world now taking place along with plenty of pent-up demand besides government mega-spending.  How sustainable this is, is yet to be seen.  In the meantime the key is to own fundamental solid companies which pay high dividends, my forte on location, since 1989.

IF you are interested in a contributing membership contact me directly with a short intro of yourself at:  paularen@gmail.com   
With over 30 years on location, full time engaged in Thai stocks and with a previous professional investor background at the high level.  View my resume here: https://thaistocks.com/content/about-us-0 

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January 2 2022.  The changing colors of the Thai stock exchange,  SET.  Participation in the SET by individual retail investors dwindled in recent years.  The % of total trading volume by individual investors used to be around 65 to 75% for many years, then dropped to nearly 30 % from 2017 to 2019. But last year 2021 cam back in good part due to people staying/stuck at home, trading shares and with good reasons or to speculate, the full year 2021 shows 44% individual participation.   If you are interested see this SET link, where one can monitor the participating percentages, as shown by investor type:  https://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/investortype.do?language=en&country=US
 

"In SE Asia there are many great stock investor opportunities due to the mega institutions most only chase big companies.  In fact some 70% of the Thai economy is generated by smaller or mid-sized firms.  Hence there are real "diamonds in the rough"...and these "taste great and are less filling"... but you will not find them in billion dollar institutional portfolios' and rarely advocated by Thai brokers nor written up in the local biz. press."   Paul A. Renaud. 

Thaistocks.com excels at investor performance over time through the rational and responsible value investing concept  -as seen objectively from a pro's investor point of view. Value investing here means growing earnings per share over time along with high dividends in understandable & what I perceive to be good investments, away from the tourist industry. We are not stock promoters nor punters, never receive any remuneration of any kind from any listed company!  We here in the past published responsible & unbiased viewpoints, uninterrupted since 1997.

As here documented to members all along: the full track record from year 2003 to inclusive 2015.  Since year 2003, I  regularly posted 6-month model portfolio's which can be accessed only by members.  Hence a documented track record as witnessed by all members all along until year 2016.

"I have appreciated your viewpoints this past year and am very happy with the results   Thanks again. I much look forward to reading the most intelligent economic/investment writing about Thailand to be found anywhere in the world.  Especially in terms of the performance of my investments. But also in expanding my knowledge of the workings of the SET."  A Member comment.  

Comments given in the past by professionals:  Click here - 
30 year expertise, viewpoints and independent research -full time- so to help create new wealth through the value and high dividend investing theme. This through my long on location expert knowledge, experience and strong connections in the segment of smaller and medium-sized Thai companies. Thai Stock Exchange is open to foreign investors since 1976.  I know it like very few others here.. despite many traps for some of us its the right and rational way to higher investor returns over time -along with often lower than market volatility.  

We are not stock promoters and never receive fees/payments of any kind from any company we follow or view positively here, or otherwise!   I focus 100% on what I do best which is finding high dividend stock "gems" and then so shared to our members.  Reputation of companies is key to investing and here my 30 years experience, besides objectivity, is paramount. ****   

For 30 on location I have with focus, passion, high ethics and determination excelled giving viewpoints as seen from the Thai stock value investors' point of view..  The many years continued model portfolio's track record -as witnessed by our members all along- is validated as follows: 

 Calendar Years:     2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010    2011    2012     2013   2014:

% change each year: 88% (14)%  82%   32%  42%   (40)%  55%  50%  17.8%  45%  (year 2012),  12.8% (year 2013), 37.95% (year 2014)

Simple average, over past 12 years:         34.7 %,  per year.
Geometric average, over past 12 years:   28.8 %,  per year.


Above shown track record is with no financial leverage...no stock shorting or hedging/puts which larger portfolios employ.  I realize, this is "armchair investing" and not necessarily my own, yet it's all based on documented model portfolio to contributing members all along.  Of course future returns will go down and up and there are never guarantees.  Past performance is never a guarantee to future returns and since 2016 smaller and  mid cap stock have overall much lagged the SET index, as I here have started to point already 3 years ago. This lagging has continued well into late 2019.  But the covit-19 horror has become a game changer and a new order emerged....since I here called the bottom in early April 2020, Thai smaller cap stocks have been performance stars!

To know more about -and to contact us click Click here - 

Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com  -since April 30, 1997.
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Paul A. Renaud
from Morgan Stanley USA, to over 30 years on location analyzing the Thai stock market.  

"Devoted to growth, low valuations and high dividends."  " Integrity is my competitive advantage".
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