paulren's picture is about value investing since 1997!

April 30 '19, marked​ our 22'nd Anniversary.

INTEGRITY IS OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE. is an intelligent investment club delivering unbiased, objective & professional viewpoints since 1997.  

Through this media, since April 1997, I share proprietary professional viewpoints, articles, in-person company visit reports with managing directors besides added value Thai stocks investor intelligence on all aspects to successful long term investing.  We also run an active-member forum. 

January 18, 2019.     Thai SET stock market Investing is a tangled web.

The SET and its brokers are a tangled web. There are core & dire concerning industry issues hindering successful Thai stock market investing. Just to name a few: as this graph shows smaller and mid cap Thai stocks have collapsed in mkt. price since 2015 (yellow line is the SET index), too often and to too many brokers advocating over-trading co-mingled with possible conflicts of interest by brokers, staff, research reports and/or outright misinformation or bad typos by the Thai biz. press, little information on companies in English language biz. press, besides no English dedicated biz. newspaper (as there was in years' past).   Far too much focus on day-trading, stock graphs or just advocating the broker gospel playing, often regardless of investor merit. Steering to no ask investor intelligent questions then so barely consider fundamental analysis.  Lack of English language prospectuses here on new IPO's or PO's, which gives comprehensive up to date and broad company core information.  Even while these are available in the Thai language. Lack in answering legitimate complaints by listed companies or the brokers -or even the SET or SEC itself.  Consider the continued declining participation of Thai retail investors presently make up barely 30%, vs. 65-70% of average total SET volume in years past.  Is anybody asking why?

Thai IPO's average year 2018 performance are not shown.
For transparency, Thai brokers and/or SET should publish composite average IPO % performance for year 2018.  Here tabulated at -9% return assuming equal IPO Baht investment in every, at the offering price.  Yet, this is not representative as some of the best performing were near or impossible to get any.. Conclusion on this yardstick, the Thai retail investors did overall poorly investing in IPO's here in year 2018 and 2019 does not look any better.   Email me and I will send you the spreadsheet with the evidence, as I don't think its published anywhere else.
  November 2019.

The changing colors of the Thai stock exchange,  SET.  Participation in the SET by individual retail investors has all but dwindled in recent times.  In years past the % of total trading volume by individual investors was around 65 to 70%,  but increasingly so this year its dwindled to less than 35% in 2019.   Is the SET president or the broker-industry wondering and asking why?  See this SET link where one can monitor the participating percentages, as shown by investor type:

Ever since 1997, when was founded we ran an active member-lounge forum where members besides myself post/respond and comment with short added-value no-nonsense unbiased insights.  This however was ended in November 2019 due to my own long poor assessment of the failing broker industry here so reported on for some time -and myself no longer choosing to be part of this industry here.   Paul A. Renaud. 

"In SE Asia there are many great stock investor opportunities as the mega institutions only chase large caps, when in fact some 70-75% of the Thai economy is generated by smaller or mid-sized companies.  Hence there are real "diamonds in the rough"...and these "taste great and are less filling"... but you will not find them in billion dollar institutional portfolios and rarely advocated by Thai brokers."   Paul A. Renaud. excels at investor performance over time through the rational and responsible value investing concept  -as seen objectively from a pro's investor point of view. Value investing here means growing earnings per share over time along with high current dividend in understandable & what I perceive to be good investments.  We are not stock promoters nor punters, never receive any remuneration of any kind from any listed company!  We here in the past published responsible & unbiased viewpoints, sans plus since 1997.

As here documented to members all along: the full track record from year 2003 to inclusive 2015.  Since year 2003, I  regularly posted 6-month model portfolio's which can be accessed only by members.  Hence a documented track record as witnessed by all members all along until year 2016.

"I have appreciated your viewpoints this past year and am very happy with the results   Thanks again. I much look forward to reading the most intelligent economic/investment writing about Thailand to be found anywhere in the world.  Especially in terms of the performance of my investments. But also in expanding my knowledge of the workings of the SET."  A Member comment.  

Comments given in the past by professionals:  Click here - 
30 year expertise, viewpoints and independent research -full time- so to help create new wealth through the value and high dividend investing theme. This through my long on location expert knowledge, experience and strong connections in the segment of smaller and medium-sized Thai companies. Thai Stock Exchange is open to foreign investors since 1976.
  I know it like very few others here.. despite many traps for some of us its the right and rational way to higher investor returns over time -along with often lower than market volatility.  

We are not stock promoters and never receive fees/payments in any kind from any companies we follow or view positively here!   I focus 100% on what I do best which is finding high dividend stock "gems" and then so shared to our members.  ****   

For 30 on location I have with focus, passion, high ethics and determination excelled giving viewpoints as seen from the Thai stock value investors' point of view..  The many years continued model portfolio's track record -as witnessed by our members all along- is validated as follows: 

 Calendar Years:     2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010    2011    2012     2013   2014:

% change each year: 88% (14)%  82%   32%  42%   (40)%  55%  50%  17.8%  45%  (year 2012),  12.8% (year 2013), 37.95% (year 2014)

Simple average, over past 12 years:         34.7 %,  per year.
Geometric average, over past 12 years:   28.8 %,  per year.

Above shown track record is with no financial stock shorting or hedging/puts which larger portfolios employ.  I realize, this is "armchair investing" and not necessarily my own, yet it's all based on documented model portfolio to members all along.  Of course future returns will go down and up and there are never guarantees.  Past performance is not a guarantee to future returns and since 2016 smaller and  mid cap stock have overall much lagged the SET index, as I here have started to point some time ago.Paul Renaud This lagging has continued well into late 2019.  My estimate is that since 2015, 2/3 of all Thai stocks have dropped 50 to 80% in value.

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Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.
Paul A. Renaud

from Morgan Stanley USA, to 30 years on- location analyzing the Thai stock market.  

"Devoted to growth, low valuations and high dividends."  " Integrity is my competitive advantage".