Dear Thai stock investor,

Over the past many years I have regularly posted model portfolios at the usual 6 month interval.  As members can see and is documented it this link with a list of all of them going back many years:

http://thaistocks.com/content/portfolio-1

Yet, over time and in practice this has created headaches for myself.  Here are just some of the issues, in a nutshell:

--They are not time adjusted, meaning if I add a new idea near the end of portfolio time period, it makes no difference in the ending performance number every six month period. So I don’t get any incremental credit for a new winner late in the game. I.e. surely a stock which goes up say 15% in one month is more rewarding then one where it took 6 months. 

--I have to manually adjust all individual stocks’ shareholder sweeteners, like dividends, rights offering, free warrants, stock dividends etc.. Along with all the posted changes made during the time period.  Which I so keep to a minimum evenwhile in practice I would have viewed to be more pro-active.  Like nailing profits, accumulating the favorite infrastructure fund, new & trading ideas (like DCONJ-W2 lately) and more.  All as the member-lounge shows through various opinions expressed there along the way.

---While the model at the outset reflects my most pointed opinion at that time, this changes over the period and not all such changes can in practice be nailed down in the model.  Example in late March I came out with a pruned down list of new selections on March 26th 2015.  See here: Click here - 

On that day I outlined, AP, DCON, PLANB, PYLON and UNIQ.  Combined these mostly new choices (except PYLON) have done rather well and by far surpassing the SET benchmark index since then. Yet I did not included them in the current model as it would have just diluted with yet more names and more effort to me.  So the current running model gets no recognition from those in hindsight new good picks. 

---Models can be confusing as they suggest any new or existing member to just look at the latest and then pick those off that model list. In practice its not so simple!  Because as time and research goes on some I like more, some less; as I always have the drive to find new/fresh ideas…which then for various reasons as explained here don’t make it in the model.  Similar with sell/take profit opinions.

--New selections late in the cycle dilute the present, or (wrongly) imply the old are less/equally or more interesting as time moved forward. Even while my emphasis has changed.   For example, late last year I viewed to double the exposure in CI and remove RML.  RML dropped around 18% while CI increases over 12% since; yet I don’t get the full credit for this in the model.  Similar with PPM where I wrote to take profit at 13, right at the highest level at a huge profit, but then got back too early so far. Distorting some of the success more seasoned members had with PPM.

Another practical problem I have is in timing of the models.  Last July 1, I turned more market cautious sold out the model at very nice gains and advocated raising cash and exposure to high yielding infrastructure & property funds, sensing that interest rates would continue to be remain low. 

You can see that at this link: Click here - 

Then on October 17 2014 I introduced a new “Market Correction Model” after the SET moved down, you can see that at this link: Click here - 

Again for a while this looked like the right move with the market slowly recovering until February 2015.  By then I here posted and wrote 2-3 articles on my trips to Europe and USA, stating I am taking a sabbatical as I sensed the market would just be uneventful -but not turning outright bearish.  By April 17 2015, six months later into the latest model, I failed to update that model (for the first time), as I have always done for over 12 consecutive years.  As I had a minor health problem then (the passing of a very painful kidney stone) and besides, felt it was just wise to hang in there and not try to hard.  Not least, I posted fresh investor ideas at the end of March, as here above noted.

Briefly stated, model portfolios are a headache for me to administer, to implement and to monitor. They also don’t do full justice as time goes on as I make subtle alterations through the various articles here and in our member -lounge.  All as I have shown again and again and as more seasoned members can appreciate.

Last but not least, I have here documented over many years how to beat the SET index through these regularly posted 2 dozen 6 month models. Yet, it has not seemed to make any difference in new members joining?  Very few of you refer new members, no biz. press has ever given attention to these.  

For long now already show how substantial returns can be achieved with patience, determination, focus on secondary stocks and regular following/membership at this site.  Yes one could say, I put to shame my viewed superior alternative to ETF investing.

Of course I realize over the past year newer members may not have seen any progress as the SET has given up some 100 points during the long and lethargic back and forth correction, now in its 8th month. (The market basically rolled-over during the July to end of September 2014 period).  Then, our Thai index peaked late last September ’14, around 1600 and barely reached the double top again a few months later in early ’15, only to drop over a 100 points since to presently around 1580.  Surely being tamed and take a brake year-to-date was the right view -along with my new ideas mentioned above, yet the model does not reflect any of this.

The efforts of the many models over a decade were necessary to have some documented record on the/my claim that over time we likely here can beat the SET index and then some. This has been done, shown and documented, of course past good results can never guarantee future returns.

I think I can more maximize my work-load for us all, then tabulating these models with all their shortcomings here explained.  In so, increase my research time on new and existing continued ideas as time goes by and prices changes.  

With my new practice now being: regularly post more lists of “most liked stocks viewed at this particular time”,  vs. stocks I am loosing some interest, would take profit or getting discouraged on.  I no longer have to prove performance here and its for you members to judged, no longer me to show. 

My view now is: contributing members are for the most part better served through the new practice here introduced today.  Any suggestions or comment of course are welcome, as always.

Please keep visiting our new site, register there, get familiar with it and make any comments, there, here -or to me directly:    http://thaistocks.com/    (around July 15 will become the all new Thaistocks.com !