Hang in there but more cautious.

More reflections by keep taking a step back, so to see the trees better.

The SET keeps trying to move higher only to give it back up,  yet staying for some days above the great barrier 1600.  The strategy of taking a step back and letting things work-out with the model portfolio seems to be the right one, as here and there another stock wakes up.  Last week and SITHAI and CRANE reaching out again.  SITHAI will have great resistance at 3 but I dare to hold as in time, or not so much time,  it should move higher.  Hence to long term investors it still deserves the buy view.  SITHAI is getting closer to a mid cap then small cap and so will deserving get some institutional attention. 

Similar with DEMCO which has stalled a bit around 15 awaiting the very likely favorable outcome with WEH, as we here amply discussed in the lounge.  The last week released KTB research report projects them to earn 1.08 a share this year, even whithout any windfall from the WEH IPO.  So we can’t argue with the p/e of 15 being expensive besides a decent dividend yield for this (now) mid cap. DEMCO is and remains the Thai leader in renewable energy.   PCSGH(9) is a new stock mentioned here of late where I can see an accumulate buy program as it too, is a high quality leader in what it does and yet has lagged. Market lethargy may continue for a while but in time say by next year should resolve by moving higher.  My take it may be a good choice to accumulate if the market takes a sudden set back which is always possible.

Holding some cash reserves remains a key feature of my viewed investor strategy into 2015 as we never know if/when a next crisis evolves.  I have been traveling SW USA (totally avoiding any snow or ice storms and if fact enjoying great weather & hikes).  I see a country on the move, wiser and older.  Average age has increased considerably since I left 25 years ago -and it shows.  They love their country but also see its shortcomings, not least on the political and fiscal stage.  I think the world at large has good reason to be angered at some of the US policies, but it should be directed to Washington rather than US people at large.  People are considerate, polite drivers, responsible it seems and many early risers. They respect and value individual choices and don’t indulge in “group think” or group act, like in Asia. This is refreshing and one reason why creativity excels.

Hiking, yoga and meditation from what I see here has become a new national pastime, even among the young.  I noticed young 20’s ladies which mail ordered their hiking boots in pride and take to the trails with vigor and enjoyment.  Much preferred over tripping to the shopping centers in vain.  Businesses seem very response to make the consumer happy, more than any other place.   Internet reviews and exchange seem to prevent rogue dealings as the word gets around with vengeance.  One exception may be the dominant insurance companies which I heard many complaints about non-payments.  They seem not to care what their reputation is as they are/remain one of the biggest TV advertisers and so just spend themselves back to popularity.  State insurance commissioners watch over with a grain of salt as these are appointed by the State governors and Insurance companies are big political donors to them.  Just to mention one short coming. J

Many so called experts here believe the US market will go higher still as there are huge sums of liquidity around and there is no real other legitimate place for much of these to go.  At the same time interest rates remaining ever so low, which is the catalyst.  Something I pointed out here for very long already.  

Perhaps the next jolt will come from Greece dropping the ball, from Russia defaulting or escalating, from enhanced currency wars, or China? I don’t know but we must be on guard and realize there could be a set- back after months of relative calm among still a bullish market in global stocks.  Hang in there but with some trepidation and cash remains my view.

Best Regards from the western USA full of great weather.

Paul,

www.thaistocks.com