CPF: A Historical Comparison
CPF is analyzed in the table below through a comparison of the last two bullish time periods in Thailand's economy (2001 to 2003/4 and 1990 to 1993). CPF is another large cap company that Thaistocks.com has followed in the past.
Things have been complicated in 2004 with the Chicken Flu problems. The event has only had a minimal effect on the revenues and earnings of this well diversified company. Still, the share price has dropped around 28% over the past 12 months. The possibility exists that the stock may be oversold, and will soon correct upward. The latest Bird Flu news is that Thai scientists have now developed a vaccine for the disease, hopefully this can bring some positive sentiment to the company.
Like many other large companies, CPF reports both Earnings and Normalised Earnings, which account for extraordinary losses or gains. The differences don't make much of a difference in the analysis below.
CPF's profit margins are less than half of what they were in the early 90's. Current sales now at least 5x greater than the early 90's. CPF obviously had a lot less shares outstanding 10-12 years ago, and this distorts the EPS, PER, BVPS, P/BV and DPS comparisons. CPF has a fairly attractive forecasted dividend yield for 2004 at 5.2% (compared to other large caps).
2004F |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
1993 |
1992 |
1991 |
1990 |
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|
Sales (Btmn) |
91,488 |
83,109 |
75,147 |
74,828 |
18,530 |
10,937 |
10,176 |
7,524 |
|||
|
Normalised earnings |
2,445 |
2,614 |
2,494 |
3,344 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||
|
Norm. Net Margin |
2.67% |
3.15% |
3.32% |
4.47% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|||
|
Earnings (Btmn) |
2,445 |
2,242 |
2,609 |
3,587 |
1,222 |
1,151 |
908 |
685 |
|||
|
Net Margin |
2.67% |
2.70% |
3.47% |
4.79% |
6.59% |
10.52% |
8.92% |
9.10% |
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|
EPS (Bt) |
0.32 |
0.4 |
0.56 |
0.93 |
10.01 |
9.59 |
7.56 |
5.71 |
|||
|
PER (x) |
11.6 |
9.3 |
6.7 |
4 |
19.08 |
12.51 |
10.45 |
11.69 |
|||
|
BVPS (Bt) |
4.13 |
5.43 |
5.69 |
5.83 |
46.1 |
41.03 |
32.71 |
28.15 |
|||
|
P/BV (x) |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
4.14 |
2.92 |
2.42 |
2.37 |
|||
|
DPS (Bt) |
0.19 |
0.23 |
0.34 |
0.55 |
5 |
4.8 |
4 |
3 |
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|
Dividend yield (%) |
5.20% |
6.20% |
9.10% |
14.80% |
2.62% |
4.00% |
5.06% |
4.49 |
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|
Net debt/equity (x) |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
1 |
1 |
1.1 |
|||
|
ROA (%) |
3.70% |
3.70% |
4.80% |
7.00% |
8.60% |
11.90% |
11.30% |
9.80% |
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|
ROE (%) |
7.90% |
7.80% |
10.60% |
16.10% |
21.50% |
23.40% |
23.10% |
20.30% |
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