Last 2 member mails.
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The below 2 mails where send to you all -in the past 24 hours.
February 19, 2002. 5 PM.
Subject: STPI, the star & Stecon now seems oversold.
I am advocating caution. I view some cash holding as a viable option. I would be selling a position on each individual stock's rally. Remember it is a market of stocks, more then a stock market!
Stocks which have gone up the most usually correct the most, when the market finally adjusts. This especially so in the finance and bank sector because the good long term fundamentals are just not there, as compared to many others. Besides they have in general much higher p/e's and no dividends. Risk adjusted, we are long ahead on those sectors!
The final 4Q, 2001 earnings are now coming out. (I believe the absolute deadline for this is March 15). Expect some winners and losers but overall, our sort of advocated shares should still mover higher as the economy & sentiment is picking up. If I am wrong and the SET soars further, they could lag but would still follow. If the market sinks, we sit on good dividends payable in April/May. Then we can accumulate-buy on any SET correction with 4Q earnings results at hand.
In general, I remain "2002 bullish" but with nevertheless a correction now a real probability. Today the SET closed at the low of the day, yet with record volume. Could this be an early sign of mkt. capitulation?
Best Regards to you,
Paul A. Renaud.
February 18, 2002. 5 PM.
Subject: Caution.
Today the market corrected a bit but still overall, things look impressive! We are in a new bull market.
STPI (3.70) was one of the most active stocks and the top daily percent gainer. STPI now deserves applause. As you all know "I pounded the table" on this one for some time; this despite more then a few dissenting opinions. One member even told me "they lost a big contract", when in fact just the opposite is true.
My feeling is that STPI's 4 Q '01 earnings are about to be released and this then should confirm what I wrote for you at thaistocks.com, long ago. It could/should also be that some other brokers are starting to advocate this stock.
If STPI opens higher tomorrow early birds should take some profits and switch into STECON (28). As I suspected the XW had more then the deserved 3 Baht sell off and so now STECON is back on my "focus list", at current prices below 30.
While I could be wrong, if the SET corrects more this week, I do not see STECON tanking lower -as the solid fundamentals support the recent price rise in my view.
Best Regards to you,
Paul A. Renaud.
