China long bull view remains.

The Western narrative and economic reality on Taiwan are completely inverted.

The Taiwan invasion thesis fails basic logic in my view because:

TSMC's advanced nodes cannot be replicated anywhere in 5-10 years minimum — not in China, not in the US despite CHIPS Act ambitions. So don't shoot your own foot.

A kinetic conflict would physically destroy or render inoperable the exact infrastructure China needs China is TSMC's largest customer base by end-market consumption Xi understands that seizing a rubble pile and a global economic sanctions tsunami simultaneously is not a 5-year plan, it's a civilizational setback!  The West inflates the risk for reasons that are not analytical: Defense industry lobbying requires an ongoing threat narrative Taiwan is a useful lever for semiconductor export controls against China Political class genuinely doesn't understand the supply chain interdependencies.

What China is actually doing is methodical — SMIC advancing nodes slowly, HBM memory development, patient domestic chip ecosystem building. Why invade when you can indigenize over 15 years without triggering global coalition against you? The real Taiwan scenario is almost certainly economic and political gradualism — not missiles! My Xiaomi thesis benefits from this clarity. If the market is mispricing Taiwan risk into Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities generally, that's a persistent valuation discount that patient investors collect.

Hence I remain a China long bull keep viewing monthly cost averaging into China ETF fund and Xiaomi stock on its current sharp price correction, at 12.90 Baht DR on the SET.