On global oil prices. The US consumer will be hit just as hard.
One of the most persistently misunderstood points in American energy policy discourse is that because the US is energy independent of late, it will not be much affected by a rise in global oil/energy prices. So Wrong. Here is why energy independence doesn't insulate US consumers:
Oil is a globally priced commodity. West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude are benchmarks set by global supply and demand, not by where the barrel was pumped out. When Hormuz tightens and Brent-oil spikes, US domestic crude prices rise in lockstep — because American producers will sell to whoever pays the global price!
A Texas oil company has 0 obligation, legal, or economic, to sell cheap oil to American refiners when they can get the world price from Asian or other buyers.
The transmission mechanism to consumers is rather direct: Refiners pay the global price for crude regardless of origin. That then feeds immediately into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil, Diesel price increases cascade into everything — trucking, agriculture, manufacturing, food supply chains Jet fuel hits airfares within weeks
The deeper point:
"Energy independence" as a political phrase describes production volume, not price insulation. The US could produce every barrel it consumes and still pay Rotterdam prices at the pump — because the alternative for producers is always to export at the world price. The one but only partial exception:
Natural gas is more regionally priced because it's harder to transport. But even that gap is now closing as US LNG export capacity expands in recent times which ironically increases exposure to global gas prices over time. The only genuine price insulation would be a strategic petroleum reserve intervention, export controls on domestic crude, or nationalization — none of which are politically viable in the current US environment.
So yes — every American consumer is effectively a participant in the Strait of Hormuz and the illegal War on Iran situation, whether they know it or not.
Too many Western centric fund managers don't or do not want to understand this. Currently considering what is happening, Thailand is understandably and rightly so trying hard to increase its oil inventory, this will benefit a Thai listed companies like Prima Marine or PRM (7.5) which is a very high dividend low p/e stock I just analyzed and wrote-up, for members here.
Best Regards, Paul A. Renaud. www.thaistocks.com
