Beware and prepared of a coming US stock shakeup, and more.

PaulRen's picture
Category: 
Non Thai Article

I remain convinced the US stock market is in a huge bubble which at some point will end badly. The timing we don't know. It will mostly have to do with debt exploding and financial and US Govt. overreach.  I can't help but to keep noticing all these upbeat comments, by often increasingly amateurs, in various forums and on LinkedIn.  "Buy the dip", "40% returns", "patient investors always win",  I was in Zurich, Switzerland just last week for a day, and Banks there from what I can tell are similarly US stock mesmerized -if not obsessed.  "We like what we know" and over the past 12+ years many got to know US stocks, as they did soo well.  We almost got a whole new generation which has never experienced a bear market.

In the meantime Donald T. is totally unhinged managing to upset many countries foes, and friends alike.  His obsession with tariffs are a horror.... Every week another country it seems gets wronged. Switzerland at 39%!, why and what a horror. India being the latest which is appalled & galled and in outcry all over this most populous nation...all this doing is bringing the rest together, where the rest is 85% of the World.   While W.Europe's politicians are hopelessly US glued.  Bref, in the meantime US. Govt. debt is exploding exponentially while I and many predict stagflation will emerge there, soon.  Stagflation was a real contentious issue for most of the 1970's -and resulted in a lost decade for US stocks back then.   

The Shanghai  Coopoeration Organization (SCO) is meeting next week and it promises to be a tour de force! While the Western media will try to downplay it, or barely report on it.

Hence my view remains to investor hide-out in highest dividend paying Thai stocks, but not high yielding Thai ETF's as my experienced picks prune-out,  I am convinced, boring "Wall flowers" and less than reputable others.  I dare to add, last not least, I think the Thai political events at the end of this week are in fact a net-positive as it likely marks the end of a time now gone past.  Yes, Thai stocks will get hit if the US has a serious set back, but dividends will keep coming-in and recover faster, I predict. Just as it did in 2008, the last US induced global financial crisis.

Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com