Some reflections looking back the past 27 years -on Thai stocks and Thaistocks.com
For many years in the past I regularly visited Thai listed companies in person.
Often with its CEO or CFO. at times touring it factories/facilities, some 160 overall. I endured regular traffic-congestion, even once in a Taxi traffic accident, and at times missed flights -and yes on rare occasion outright misleading statements by some companies. But at the start of all of my meetings I would state: that I operate on an international level and if mislead or outright wrong or way over exaggerated statements or other paramount dis-information, I would have no choice but to point this out to my members. This all came to a halt a few short years ago for 2 distinct reasons:
1) Increasingly understood and here then so posted, how the SET overall was likely to enter a long bear market period due to the Thai economy all but stalling -and not least lack of broker reforms. As well as the classic middle income trap it should have foreseen coming. 2) As well as the SET/SEC too lame which often just did not fine offenders, nor jail time. This seems to be changing for the better now? 3) This infamous #336 horror Thai strict defamation law of late, where even if true statements are made with ample evidence to back it up, one still can get sued for malfeasance. "While true what you said, it made me look bad so I will sue you". This reality as I saw it, vastly increased the risk of being mislead. A core concern when investing dire capital. Combined in my view, this was enough to take a back seat, investment wise.
This does not mean there are not some great/reputable companies here which run on their own good doing & recognizance. Reputable and honest companies here are for real -and over the past 3 years I pointed out my favored ones to hide-out this SET mkt. deluge. Not least with their often 6-7% yearly dividends, vs 0.3% on Thai bank saving accounts in Thai Baht. Today my investor theme has emerged "Beyond Thaistocks.com". I delivered on that with my positive comments on Chinese oversold stocks last February (calling the bottom there) and high investor enthuse on XIAOMI whose stock price nearly doubled since posting here late last June'24. See Thai listed DR with symbol XIAOMI80.
Reflecting back on those years, I often strangely noted in all those past years visiting all these companies, often facilitated by brokers: that post my visits, with long experience and the in person CEO interviews, Broker marketing agents were just never interested in what I there learned! Nor asked about it. And when on occasion I shared some insights, unsolicited by say forwarding some of my obtained post-visit write ups, there was no interest/follow up or appreciation at all. On occasion in those days I would get great insights...like just few examples BANPU, TICON or DEMCO and various others whose stock prices went up 5 fold in months after or barely 2-3 years later.
Its like broker mkt. officers had no interest in fundamental research or companies' good prospects as explained directly from the CEO. They, for the most part, just did not see themselves as new wealth creators for their clients, only trading facilitators! Anything more was may we say, "above their pay grade". Its almost like creating good returns for clients was not something they aimed for.
When on occasion I would tell a brokers's MD to be concerned on not just turning all retail investors into traders (many studies have shown most day traders loose over time), they always answered "we know, but its what the clients wants to do". This is a "catch-all" mindset/disposition nonsense only to indirectly promulgate/enhance "trading galore". I also observed on various occasions how mkt. officers interacted by phone or in person very different to clients: all depending on how much they knew about stock market investing. Resulting often in less experienced retail investors to sell out early their winning stocks, but then holding on to the poor ones. So in time trimming all the winners -while holding on to the losers. Not long after owning mostly a portfolio of laggards. A classic investor trap which in time brings on investor dire disappointment and so then sharing this with others: "Don't invest in stocks". When in fact it was the strategy which failed.
I was never, but never, able to convince any broker here to run their business on telling their clients the good investor story on hand with high dividends and then be patient. Or alternatively, its ok to trade some -but only around good fundamental stocks, so it one gets stuck its very likely a good company. 
Not much seems to have changed on these above shortcomings, here is how I wrote lately on that, yet again, one last time:
On Thai stocks the valuation divergence is as alive as ever -while too often not adhering to fundamentals. The regular top 2 stocks here, by far most active traded ones, keep roaring & dominating while trading at ridiculous trailing p/e average of 70 -while yielding barely combined a 1.2% in dividend yield.....vs. soo many smaller & mid sized Thai growth stocks with no or little debt -and p/e's of 12-16 - and yielding 6-7% in dividend -yet all but get ignored. Insane how this has only increased of late. How can any rational investor deal with these. ongoing mkt. distorted realities? I don't know.
This in a nutshell are just some of the long story/sage of Thai stock market investing -post 30 years professional experience here on location. Having said all this, last but not least and while there are always set backs, I am very great-full to the -overall- many above average returns delivered here to members, in the long past. Despite all.
Best Regards,
Paul A. Renaud. Beyond www.thaistocks.com PS. Thai IPO investing is not so much different where new IPO's regularly get overpriced -and then trade fanatically & speculating on the first few days, only too often then to be forgotten and so languish after that. At least now, on my for long advocating, one can see the history of how IPO's fare, over time. Not just the first few days.
