Gold, is it peaking or just consolidating with more upside to come?
My call is to be very cautious here as its now at best a speculative investment with no income -which could well move down rather then more up.
I've been asked from time to time about Gold and stated in the recent and more distant past that yes, I am gold bullish -but quick to add our select Thai stocks should combined likely do even better then Gold. So far, so well.
Here you can see a Gold chart:
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/gold.aspx
I inserted 2 years on this graph. Note how recently the price seems to be stalling around 1400, this after 3 unsuccessful attempts. Some graphie’s would call this topping. Of course calling the top on anything is extremely though ..more so on a major global commodity like Gold. The yellow metal is a "very crowded trade", meaning that so many are bullish on Gold now...it so makes me nervous to join.
I don't claim to be the master here and there are plenty others which think they are. Gold also also depends on the US$ currency, where I remain with a longer term a mild bearish view on the $. Gold for some time looks peaked to me.
After a 10 year bull rally in Gold, I am more cautious. Many out there believe in the doomsday scenario and so just invest in Gold/Silver...but now its more like speculating. Its an easy cop-out, to stop analyzing, so to sleep well at night in case the world falls off a cliff. But is it?
As stated previously, I think the US/EU will keep growing slowly -but not fall into abyss. I am Gold price cautious but not alarmed. I view to hold very little gold/silver, my call now is it may well be peaking for a while.
We may well be more on a the global Oil standard far more them any gold standard. Demand for Gold is by itself rather very irrational as its value is almost entirely in the eyes of the beholder. I view it as a speculative asset not a sensible investment where yield is highly valued.
Then again sensible investor pro’s would avoid making such a call as the craze of the markets may shoot it higher? Yet not to decide is to decide -especially after this nice run…at least in US$ terms. Shy away from Gold. As always, my views could be wrong.
Best Regards,
Paul Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com
