US stocks -more then just a correction. The World beyond dominant USA.

The US and EU are stalling or worse, while China will keep rising and the event of just late have only advanced this reality.

As many of you know I've been US stocks bearish for some months and as we all saw a big correction took place lately, due to horrific tariff declarations and President Trump's seemingly incoherent strategy and ill conceived economics.  Some rightly claim, as I would, these are illegal as only US Congress can levy such tariffs which amount to a taxation on US consumers.  But this hides the fact that the US hegemony is peaking while at the same time US stocks for some time have been way overvalued -by any historical measure.  On top of this the US$ currency lost some 8% of its value -as did the long US treasury bond.  In the past both of which should have rallied during such a stock-rut turmoil. Hence, a rather clear sign US dominance is on the vane.  Global and local US investors have hence taken a triple-whammy both on its stocks, currency and bonds!  Lost confidence now so billions if not trillions of $ will now look for investments elsewhere around the world, or even Crypto which has held up markedly well.

When I started my investor career well over 40 years ago, I witnessed as a University student in the US back then its stock mkt. stall for over 10 years...the Dow Jones Index could not get past 1000 -for over a decade.  It was its lost decade.  I think it may well now be on a long-bore there or further declines...,only time will tell if this was good foresight.  Nothing to do with "pessimism", just global real-politik assessment -as viewed from/with a tri-cultural dimensional view with long experience.

Maybe, I fear, similar with Europe?  I.e. loosing its already long tame luster.
Colonel Jacques Baud, a former military intelligence analyst in the Swiss Army. and the author of many books. He argues in a recent very credible interview that Europe no longer has a strategy in terms of grand objectives to achieve that which correspond with its means. "Europe is without direction, which results in destructive policies, self-harm, fragmentation, and eventually its downfall".

Lately Gold has rocketed-up and I here always viewed since inception to slowly/regularly accumulate this alternative legitimate investment, which when it climaxed last week at $3500 where as in the past such spikes I view profit taking.   Realize, Gold is always globally priced in US$, hence its not so much how Gold did well over the years, as it is how the US$ currency dropped....Vs. the Swiss Frank, for example, the US $ lost over 80% of its value in the past 50 years.  

I remain Thai stocks unexcited as stated here ever since end of Covit bounce, yet/while view keeping our ultra high dividend choices as they yield 20 times more then Thai Baht held in the Thai Banks!  I think on Wednesday April 30, the Bank of Thailand will likely reduce interest rates, hence Thai bank deposit yield will if anything remain ultra low.  Just about all have now gone XD, and will pay their big dividends to shareholders in May.  (When a stock goes XD its reduced by the dividend amount per share on that XD trading day).  Realize an investment which yields 7% will double in value in 10.2 years.   

One Thai stock I view worth nibbling at present is MASTER (21) it endured a huge drop from 50-70 Baht

At a p/e of now barely 12 -its likely a good domestic play, along with a 4% dividend for this year, as I predict.  Especially so if it moves a touch lower on its 1st Q. 2025 earnings 
report later next week -which I think will be the low of the year!  MASTER stock, still growing fast, dropped mostly because its majority biggest shareholder sold a big block of shares to an institution (at 37.5) which the Thai bear market did not like...and anyway, while a quality company, it was overvalued back then.  But no longer, so in my view its worth a "buy opinion". 

To remind all, on May 7th TOG (8) will have its "SET Opportunity Day" presentation, so members stay tuned as its an important one.  TOG being a big exporter is likely to be hit by US tariffs, but their big competitor is China which is hit on that far worse.   

My view remains since February 2024, is to keep accumulating CHINA ETF's fund on the dollar-cost-averaging method, i.e. every month on the same day to keep accumulating in the same manner/amount. While the single most interesting stock pick there has for almost a year now, been XIAOMI. (Traded as a DR on the SET with symbol XIAOMI80).

Best Regards & Happy 28th year Thaistocks.com Anniversary!.