US market rises further on no worries, that is the worry.

The US stock market worry is that there seems nothing to worry. So to US stock investors I say: start worrying.

Wall Street now should have a serious worry, it is that nobody there is worried much anymore regarding US stocks.  Century record devastating storms, N. Korea nuclear alarms & dire threats & tests, US Presidential turmoil, firings and havoc... assured coming increases in US % rates while reducing Fed balance sheets etc...and yet, nothing seems to jolt the US market. Its not rising on the wall of worry, its rising on no worries.  Too many there are set on you just buy the dips -not worry and see the US market uptrend resume.  This narrative has worked for years and now its just about entrenched...this should be more then a worry.  Masses are investing in glorious ETS's holding on and and just going on with life.  But the age old proverb must not be forgotten:  when everybody thinks the same way, nobody is doing much thinking. 

As here written before, bloating index funds are part of the nouveau increasing coming one day dire problem/horror, in that these inflates bubbles.   Index funds, the painful paradox, is they are helping make markets more prone to bubbles.  The little told irony is as they grow more successful, they make the market less efficient.  "Index funds. a great idea for many investors, but the more they grow, the more inefficient they make the market and the more they encourage investors to move in lockstep. They are based on academic theories on efficient markets which greed a psychological overconfidence, US markets roar further ahead to yet more new highs....markets become less efficient when driven by ideas based on efficiency".   From a classic book called:  The Fearful Rise of Markets  by  John Authors.   One reason this is because as certain sectors and stocks become overvalued and over-hyped, these mega index funds must buy ever more into these all while avoiding stocks which are tame and undervalued.  This has now been going on for years.  Think about the dot com bubble times 17 years ago, as dot com stocks become overvalued, overpriced and way over hyped -such kind of funds bought increasingly more and more, by definition, until they all collapsed.

Its the old story on how to catch wolves in Russia, in ancient times.  You put sword in blood and then let it freeze overnight, then do this again a few times. Then you stick it in the ground in the tundra forest, upside down.  The wolves come and start licking slowly and cautiously, but the more they lick they more it melts...the more it melts the more and faster they lick...this goes on until they go near crazy.   In the end the wolves bite into the sword frantically and kill themselves.

What will happen to Thai stocks if there is a huge re-set in the US stock market?  Say a sudden 10-15% US market correction jolt. Few dare to predict with confidence because few know. My take is It would hit the our SET here as well, but not as much and then recover faster. As here we are far removed and in a much different cycle.  Further it may prompt global capital to realize the punch is over on US shares and move more money to Asia, on the further entrenched Easternization,  realization. Surely a big drop in US stocks would generate a large new pocket of nervous cash on hand.  Such an event would likely prompt the US Fed to tame further its planed % rate increases, and so likely a dip the US$ vs. Baht currency, further.  The Thai Baht currency has already risen 8% vs. the US $ this year.  Not least, it would in time treasure even more high dividend paying Thai stocks further and these yields seem to be on the increase into next year, regardless of what the US stock market folie brings!  After the shock of a US market downward adjustment -and all the terrible headlines,-reality would set in that to some degree Thai stocks is a good place to hide out such a coming certainty, yet its timing we don't know.

Best Regards,