The US induced latest financial scandal.

PaulRen's picture
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Industry

In 1997 it was the Thai "tom yum kum" induced crisis; now its the US Hamburger turn.  Shame on them, as they should have known better.

As we all now see, the true investment risks are coming more from in the "West", then from Thailand or Asia. Lead by the US and EU now chuck-full involved in the latest sub-prime and prime mortgage market latest securities' scandal -still to be unfolded. While the Reserve Banks of developed countries are ever quick to lecture developing countries to let the market system prune out the bad apples, they are now in the forefront to save their own bad excesses with huge liquidity injections, at taxpayers expense.  For years we have all known the US boom in home prices is unsustainable, yet nothing was done...

Structured products, derivatives and all this fancy stuff the big bankers there talk about to investors of late years are now taking some real beating...., ha but not Thai smaller cap's, whom overall held up just about 99% of their value -as I chose them. In fact, I think its fair to say my favored stocks are is overall valued as much today as when I left for the holidays in early July. I dare to say to you, Crisis, what crisis? Or, Correction, what correction? Beyond the big cap's its looks like just stay invested and ride it through.

ChicagoWhile I warned to be SET cautious in June/July, so fare our core selections are holding up better then just about anything else in the world. So far anyway... and I think this will hold; unless there is a total meltdown. To date even Gold and overall commodities, the long advocated insured alternative, sold off a bit on this latest stock rut. Gold turned out to be a yawn during in all this, cash did better.

To date, most only Thai large blue chips cap's have been at the center of of the SET sell off, led by bank and energy stocks. Yet many remain well above at prices I selected... back in May. (CPN, TISCO, PTT). Only BEC, the choice of late July, is off just a couple of percentage points. I think our smaller cap shares will hold their value and resume their outperformance before year end.

Foreign institutions own only the large cap's, now on the run to the woods. The big cap gnomes are getting butchered... as often in the past, the risks turned out to be the large cap.s, not the less liquid Thai value shares! Foreigners are selling their Thai big cap.s to plug their sinking holes back home.

With the SET flirting below 800 last Friday Aug 10, at midday, I dared to then and there post that I think its back to the bargain table/hunting...no matter what happens in the short run. Thai stocks are back on the cheap side and the earnings fundamentals far distanced from the US induced turmoil.

While I am content to have turned more cautious in June/July, even while my group of liked shares are holding up rather incredible well during the global stock meltdown as of mid August.

Indeed most only Thai blue chips large cap's are/have been at the center of of the SET sell off, led by bank and energy stocks. Obviously so, as this only is what these foreign institutions own, now on the run to the woods. The big cap gnomes are now getting butchered.

Best Regards, hang in there and accumulate more Thai value shares!

Back and refreshed from the Holidays.

Paul A. Renaud.

www.thaistocks.com