Statement on Historical performance.

paulren's picture
Category: 
Portfolio Update

During the year 2007 we had a number of impressive winning positions as members (and now free articles) can attest.  Examples like DEMCO, UMS, UEC, TRC, SAT, TVO, LVT these combined resulted in over an average 50% that year.  Even TISCO, CPALL, TTCL and CPN are prominent larger cap choices did well for us then and STPT, SGP and IVL since.  In July of '07 for example, I turned far more cautious and advocated profit taking on several occasions to our members... Less volatile then the SET its all been a long demonstration to new wealth creation. 

Anyway, as of early 2010, here is a year to year recap, with original member comments postings:   /index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=1&pid=928

More...on performance.

A short but fair history on performance over the past years, since our inception.

The longest running model portfolio was the "Original 30" portfolio which was tracked for over three years. This was the model shown 2 different times on my 4 separate CNBC TV interviews, starting in April of 1999. Here was a table of 30 value stocks picked purely on low valuation besides high dividend prospects, rather then large market capitalization. I show the "original 30" final performance tabulation summary link further below.

As for the latest results:
The year 2005 model portfolio returned 85.4%, for the one year time period from Nov 1 2004, to Nov 1 2005, by far beating the SET index. On November 1, I reformulated the model and showed a further 4.37% increase in value, up until December 31 '05.

On January 2 2006, I started a new model with 15 different stock selections. I there clearly identified select choices which performed most favorably, in hindsight. Then, mainly due to strong price advances on these favorite selections and the sudden political turmoil, I decided to terminate this model with a 30%+ gain, for the 1st quarter, as posted here on April 1 '06.

You can see this model, now ended, at this link:
index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=1&pid=700

Then on June 23 '06, I started a new model portfolio called the "strong buy" model. With a near 23% return, here I show an out-performance of 8:1 compared to the SET index during the same time.

You can see this at this link:

/index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=1&pid=750

Then there was Ticon, my "strongest buy view’stock pick since starting this web site.  On October 27 '04, I here posted a "maximum bullish view" on Ticon Industrial Connection ("Ticon" is listed in the property sector), at the then market price of 6 Baht per share. I viewed this single choice to be "my best pick in many years" -as I felt the general Thai market in 2005 would be an uneventfull year. The only time sine 1997 in which I rated any stock with "a strongest buy view", except again in February of 2010 when I posted a strongest buy view on DEMCO.

www.achive.org has the record on some of ts.com's long history.
You can see evidence on this at archive.org:
http://web.archive.org/web/20041110043203//

Ticon traded for several weeks after Oct. 27 between 5.95 and 6.5 Baht per share before rising in December '04. I wrote-up many different research articles on Ticon over the past 2 years since, articulating and explaining why this company was/is such an exceptional strong choice. Many of these are articles are now available for all to see. I updated members on this favored choice every quarter and then expanded on it with more selections starting in June of '05, and again in November of 05.

Ticon then more then tripled in price, beating the SET benchmark index by a huge margin. I re-affirmed my strong buy view when Ticon shares price corrected to around 8-9 Baht in mid July 2005.  As of mid January '07, this selection traded around 17 Baht per share and in addition paid 1.80 in cash dividends each, over the past 2 years. I recently changed my rating view from a "strong buy" to a "long term buy" as I still like this core selection despite its immense appreciation but then in 2008 turned bearish on it.

The 10 years of performance models' show that a carefully chosen group of Thai value stocks that focus on strong business fundamentals, high dividends and low p/e ratio's, can easily & fairly regularly over time outperform the tilted bank, energy and volatility laden SET benchmark index.

None of these model portfolios are meant to be individual investment recommendations to you, but instead show how rational investors with here shown choices can beat the SET index. This by focusing on fundamentally strong companies which pay high cash dividends, rather then just share liquidity or trading appeal.  I here have shown again and again significant wealth creation in the making -since 1997.

Since 1997, I spend intermittently many weeks every year in Bangkok regularly visiting in person most many companies.  These choices are less volatile and often perform considerably better, then the larger capitalized SET stocks, as here shown again and again since 1997. The problem can be share liquidity but this is often a moot issue to smaller investors and the stock price wakes-up, trading volume just about always soars. 

I certify that the above is true and correct and to the best of my knowledge a fair presentation as has been posted for members here regularly and un-interrupted since April 30 of 1997.

This year 2011 to date, we did very well with MAJOR, ROBINS, PYLON and UKEM, four stocks wich rocketed up. On DEMCO we are still holding on as the good news remains forthcoming.

Best Regards,
Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com

 

The "Original Top 30" model portfolio, as summarized below: See this link for the full original table /index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=2&pid=32

You can see this link here for the full performance tabulation:

/index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=2&pid=110