Qualitative not Quantitative. Jewels in the rough.

PaulRen's picture

The SET bear market continues as I feared would come -and here posted so already some time ago.  A silver lining is starting to emerge.

Thailand has a newer strict defamation law in place, no doubt many are aware of, which is a real horror where you can't even point out a dishonesty -without the risk of then getting sued, even when you have the evidence it was so!  This is a real problem for always vulnerable investors and integrity pro's like me -as if I find a rogue action by a listed company, I can't dare anymore to warn investors about.  This can be just as serious the recent confusing Thai Tax fears many expats fear....so, its all a bit "f,,,d up", pardon the saying.   Not least the much ongoing juvenile politics which are just not improving.  And with no real caveats on the horizon -as it seems to many now. No wonder the SET keeps languishing, along with a poor performing economy and global risks. 

But there is a silver lining as there are some very high dividend paying companies which run an honest show, for their own high integrity/character reasons!  Like I know TOG (9.85) does, and select others I gotten to know over the past 30 years -and 160 in person company visits (picture here shows me in Zermatt, Switzerland on Holidays not long ago.)  

The one thing I would add in Thailand its not that simple to analyze by far via quantitative models.....You can't just from afar analyze companies with quant tools like many services proclaim.  This can be a real investor value trap:  As there are many listed companies here which are "wall flowers"; these look good on paper, but are not really good investments over time as they never go anywhere, stock-price wise.  Similarly there are some which look good (again "on paper"/quant), but have long, while less known bad local reputation...just as there are companies which don't look so good on quant, but the hidden reality is they are getting less bad.  Realize, a poor performing company but which is becoming less bad, can also be a good investment.  Just like a high dividend paying co. where however the dividend is not sustainable, or poor mgt, or in a sunset industry, can be far less appealing.  Look what happened to DIF.  One problem there was TRUE, its biggest shareholder, occasionally dumping DIF units en-masse -ever so often so depressing its price. We call that a big overhang risk, quant analysis would not pick up on.

Bref, in Thailand it really so pays to focus on qualitative on location checking reputation etc...vs, quant analysis in high towers, from afar. This along with a strict "take profit taking" in time, unlike that W. Buffet professes -this has been the key for investor success here over decades.  We may well now be approaching, with the SET below 1300, a situation where select quality/integrity companies with such high dividends -are the investor treasures' in time.  Its darkest just before sunrise.  I dare to say, I know where to lock for.

Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com -and beyond.