The past 12 months and the resumption of the future.

paulren's picture
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Introduction

1)  It was wrong to remain SET and smaller cap bullish as the global financial crisis turned out to be far more devastating to our stock markets here then perceived then. While Asia was/is a bystander to the financial crisis it got engulfed in part due to billions of shares sold in Asia, to cover losses back home, regardless of fundamentals. It would have obviously looking back, been wise to stay out in year 2008, regardless of the fundamentals. (Yet so one might have also so likely missed the accelerated recovery in the 2 Q. ?09. ?).   By holding on,  one must compare this to the trillions $/EU lost which were invested in US housing/related as it turned out ninja bonds, where recovery is the nightmare.

2)  I stated for long and until recently that the US $ and Thai Baht currencies are not a risk and would remain firm monies, for very different reasons. Yet I do recognize that over time now the US$ value vs others, will likely weaken. At year end '08, I viewed a bear market in government bonds starting. Yields going up so market values sliding. As compared to stocks which would recover.

3)  While I was no Gold bear a year ago and currently, I stated all along it would be a boring and expensive investment at best ?side way up?. For long believed and up until mid ?08, Oil was overvalued and due for a massive correction at some point.

4)  While never subscribing to the feared higher Inflation argument, instead challenging their views. Except for a brief period, consumer price indexes overall has been tame for many years.

5)  Asia remains rising and this "plateauic shift" creates superb opportunities to invest in undervalued Asian growth stocks here, not yoyo around the still long term in place trend. (Continued accumulators of Asian growth stocks over the past year are almost back to brake even levels, including dividends).

6) To keep gathering of such high yielding growth stocks as monitored and visited/researched here can lead to substantial high returns over time. With the financial crisis tamed, to now walk away at current historical low levels will in time show to be an investment mistake, not mishap.

Paul  A. Renaud.

www.thaistocks.com