Original member postings from the recent past.

paulren's picture
Category: 
Introduction

Below are some original  postings made to our active member -lounge.  We have an active member lounge which I monitor on a daily basis.

January 3 '09.

Hi Paul,
 
Thank you for your recent message. It was good to catch up and I appreciate you keepinig at it with Thaistocks over the years while so many others have fallen by the wayside.
 
I owe you for giving me the support to think I cld take on my own investing in the SET. Managing your own investments seems strange to many other "retireds" who think a professional will do a better job. The Madoff scandel is the worst poss. outcome of this approach, while the performance of so many hedge funds in particular is testimony to "handling your own investments is best".
 
I wish us all a better New Year. I think there is a good chance we'll have one in Thailand, despite everything bad elsewhere.
 
Knd regards,

P....

From one of our very first member which renewed ever since 1997.

February 5th "07.

PR Letter to the Bangkok Post.

Sufficiency economy offers sustainability, why is this so difficult to understand?

Much has recently been written here about sufficiency economy. It"s a concept similar to sustainability -and its very much the challenge of this century!
The idea behind sufficiency economy is that it is constituted by the trinity of environmental soundness, social justice and economic viability. If any of these 3 are weak or missing, the practice will not prove to be sustainable over time -and so everybody looses. Governments as well as businesses acting consistent with this viable & responsible view of sufficiency, so offer the probability to integration of otherwise seemingly irreconcilable interests.

Why is this so difficult to understand by some members of the foreign press?

Paul A. Renaud.
Thaistocks.com AG
Sihlquai 253
8005 Zurich, Switzerland.

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Member posting on January 24 "07 Member Joined: Nov 03, 2003

Hi Paul,

I am looking investing into TFUND, now is 9.45, for a long term dividends investment. But I am still confused of how good the investment will be. It was first listed at 10 Baht/share and now dropped down to 9.45 or about 5.5% decrease in market value. It pays dividends quartly and this quarter is about 0.22 Baht each share, or about 8-9% dividends return per year. When the market value drops by 5.5% and pays dividend by 9% so we left with only 3.5% if we were to sell it off. So it won"t be such a good investment then. Besides I don"t really see the share prices go up but rather tend to come down overtimes and it never passed 10 baht point. May be you can help me to understand it better?

Regards,
T....

PR Answer back On January 24 "07

True over the recent past it eroded much/some of what it had paid in dividends. But this is history and probably not fair to project in the future. I think some institutional investors just sold it out that is why it dropped, as in US$ terms it was a rather good performer -since the Baht appreciated by some 17% over the past year.

With Thai interest rates now dropping, this fund owning its properties outright (not leased) and the dividend probably on the increase over the years, I think its a solid choice for income oriented investors, even-while price appreciation might be minor.

IF you consider a Thai 10 year govt. bond you barely get 5%, and no chance of any real yield appreciation. Also these bonds are not easy to buy for smaller amounts. I suppose that is one alternative to compare it to, so I would prefer the TFUND units which also pays its interest quarterly.

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Member posting on December 6 th "07 Joined: Nov 06, 2003.

SAT was a favorite of yours a while ago, and had a nice run up to around 20 (if I remember correctly), and ever since then has just been sliding sliding sliding. Now at 12.5.

What is going on with this company, and are we finally at the bottom of this slide?

It has been lingering around the 12.5- 13 range for quite some time.

Thanks for any insight.
C-

PR Answer on December 7th "07

I did advocate taking profits on this leading automotive parts supplier long ago, and around current levels at 12 have added it back to my latest model portfolio, just last month. SAT had a tough 2006 year in transition and along with most other car parts companies, but I think this is now over and so should be nibbled back. Lower energy prices and interest cost should be the drivers, also I think this stock along with TSC appear oversold.

_________________
Very Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.

Thaistocks.com AG, Zurich, Switzerland.
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E-mail: paulren@thaistocks.com
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Member posting on January 22 "07 Joined Jan 01 2004

SAT is sinking further to the 8.3 range as of Jan. 23. Am I missing something? Is it because auto related company is affected by the foreign investment regulation? EPS (3Q) is 1.05, so not so bad.

PR Answer on Jan 27 "07

True, but this is not such surprising new news. As SAT must fund their expansion planned for "07. Also note other auto part companies have taken a beating recently, like STANLY, the bellweather which also lost some 30% in past few weeks. I will see SAT (confirmed) by Feb 12-14. So keep posted here. As stated I will visit them in person shortly For venture some, sounds like some averaging down below 8 Baht right now may now be in order with SAT.
_________________
Very Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.

Thaistocks.com AG, Zurich, Switzerland.
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E-mail: paulren@thaistocks.com
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January 22 "07

PR Letter to the Nation Newspaper.

Regarding recent news around the Bank of Thailand which purposely created "Uncertainty". And the recent dropping of local interest rates.

One irrationality by the Thai BOT is why, but why, did they not along with all listed SET stocks, also exempt listed REIT’s, from their new 30 % withholding measures? Surely, SET listed Thai Real Estate Investment trusts (REIT’s) are still in their infancy here, so not to exclude them as well, just makes little sense.

The lack of exclusion has now resulted in several Thai listed companies having to delay their legitimate expansion plans. And at the same time deny many high yield seeking savers more high dividend paying alternatives, this as compared to bonds and Bank saving accounts where yields are dropping.

Surely, REIT’s the world over are a proven desirable savings disintermediation measure and here had nothing to do with currency speculating. We professionals in the Thai financial markets just do not understands why the BOT did not exclude these, as they rightly did with Thai stock market investing. Looking at price graphs of these REIT’s before the December 19 measures did not show speculative spikes forming in any of these.

It just makes no sense at all for the BOT to exclude SET stocks, but not SET listed REITS!

Best Regards,

Paul Renaud.
Thaistocks.com AG.
Sihlquai 253
8005 Zürich, Switzerland.

Zurich Switzerland.
_________________
Very Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.

Thaistocks.com AG, Zurich, Switzerland.

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Member Posting made on January 20 "07 Joined July 16 "07.

I (as you) picked SPALI as my favorite stock in Thailand overall.

There is not much on your adventurous website I could find about SPALI today.

The only thing I found was an answer you posted around the 18th of November 2006 that this is your favorite stock in that sector.

Pretty good.

Is there any chance you can elaborate on SPALI a bit more?

Thank you very much!

Felix

PR answer on January 21 "07

I visited SPALI a year ago, and glad to have picked this one as my top choice in the property developer sector. Yes, it remains so
You can see the original report here:

/index.php?module=Pagesetter&func=viewpub&tid=1&pid=686

I have not visited this company again in person, yet have visited many others. I can"t always re-visit each company I write here, as there is so much else to do, including finding new ideas like I think I just did recently with UEC, DEMCO, and UKEM. (However on UKEM I am more cautious, after visiting them).

I note SPALI has delivered in strong earnings and high dividends since and while year 2007 might be a bit more challenging for them, I remain a fan not the least due to dropping interest rates, oil and taming inflation. Last year this stock had among the best price appreciation of any stock in that sector. Its low p/e, high dividend prospects and appealing Condo projects in the pipeline, remain the core reasons I still like it. . I will visit SPALI again in the 2nd week of February, so stay tuned.

_________________
Very Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.

Thaistocks.com AG, Zurich, Switzerland.
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E-mail: paulren@thaistocks.com
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