My CV19 bottom fishing model portfolio, to members.

April 6th 2020.  After turning outright SET bullish again in mid March 2020, as published at my front page in blue ink, today I introduce my "bottom fishing" last model portfolio, the first in 3 years.

The investor objective of my model portfolio below is clear: 1) A return in earnings' growth when some form of normalcy returns in months to come with the view on year 2021, vs. this year which is a transition year.   2) High cash dividend income in the interim which will be impacted in the very shorter term, but should resume again post these difficult few months.  With "transition" I obviously mean the temporary setback of the CV19-virus which has stalled the global & local economy during much of the 2 Q.  There is obviously a risk this lingering on beyond April/May/June? but due to above average dividend income in this ultra low interest rate world, we can afford to wait until what will likely be a “V” or "U" recovery.  Anyway this is what I believe at this time, being convinced stock markets will recovery before the virus news starts getting less bad.  If our timing is wrong and CV19 lingers on longer to tackle and burn out (and we will tackle it) then, we keep earning high dividends returns in a near 0% interest rate environment which has been further pushed towards 0 of late.  I accept the risk of some dividends being reduced some, during this down time. 

All is as of April 6th (a Holiday) 2020, with the SET index at 1138:

Below are my 10 picks at this time with high dividend income along with (hopefully) capital appreciation. I do not list them in any order of priority and have a 1 year time objective and I assume equal investment in each:

AUCT (4.30) BBL (95.75) DCC (1.44) FSMART (5.45) SABINA (16.90) UNIQ (3.98)  (high dividend picks).

In the second part model, I pick special situation choices. Where the near term dividend are not elemental due to some well understood and followed fundamentals:  Like in the case of PPS (0.44) which will see a gigantic impact on earnings every time one of their ultra high end villa sells at Yamu, Phuket along with their core biz. which should at some point see a large contract awarded.  Or CHO (0.42) which promises in recent news reports to have increased sales and earnings this year -and it just appears way oversold.  Either of these should not have any real lasting V19 impact.  Or PTTGC (36.75) which will benefit from a 2021 recovery year and has been oversold, its my large cap pick.   Or CHAYO (3.86) which should benefit from this economic set back in time CHAYO just announced new free warrants. XW is May 14th, 3 for 1, convertible at 6.50 Baht at 1 warrant for 1 new share. 2 years.

Some additional notes:

BBL and PTTGC are my big cap picks.  PTTGC remains a high dividend stock…its oversold and will benefit from any broad economic recovery especially in oil prices which got unduly slammed of just late.  BBL is the country’s leading/biggest bank, at this price should pay near 7% dividend (not XD yet) trading at a ultra low 0.42 of book value which is stated at 223 Baht per share, the lowest price to book, ever.  BBL will get affected by the current crisis but I think this is discounted in its stock price which has fallen by 40% since. There is a huge short position on BBL.   DCC and FSMART are among the highest dividend stocks at near or at 10%, but growth in earnings is less clear.  I hope to have more to say soon on FSMART, the latter is buying back some of its own shares daily and seems to be benefiting from the current set back.  SABINA, I just reviewed late last week in the previous member article.  CHO, just appears oversold to me…it invested allot in robotics, 24 hour on line truck stops and other infrastructure related biz.  If I had to chose PPS over CHO, I would chose PPS, not least because of my conviction in their Yamu, Phuket project as well as heavy insider buying by CEO of late (see member lounge).    As time goes on I will -as always- update and post new information as I gather, on each.

Here is the complete list:  AUCT (4.30) BBL (95.75) CHAYO (3.86) CHO (0.42) DCC (1.44) PPS (0.44) PTTGC (36.75)  FSMART (5.45) SABINA (16.90) UNIQ (3.98) 

Best Regards to all members,

www.thaistocks.com