More updates on previous selections and sour on Thai IPO".s

Today I review a couple of more stocks which I mentioned favorably a few months back, make some year end general comments and turn sour on Thai IPO's.

In the meantime the SET is just muddling through, both frustrating the bulls and the bears. This even while global oil prices took on a nice correction, just after the US presidential election; just as we sort of predicted. Correcting oil prices should be SET bullish but Mr. Market is buying time. "Never short a dull market"...the SET does have a history of moving up during year end holidays.

Surely, since early November more than a few smaller cap selections have recouped some of their mid year losses and bounced back nicely; hence it was overall correct to just stick it out. I think next year will reward our patience even more. Next year could well be "the Asian Crisis in reverse", as Lehman Brothers just predicted.

Despite the 30% price surge so far since pounding the table on Ticon, nothing has changed with my strong buy opinion on this key selection. My rating remains intact and I think this stock should keep outperforming nicely over time. Early next year more analyst will catch on and understand the story better…and just last weekend, I shared this upbeat, highly bullish Ticon story with a contributing editor for Forbes Magazine.

Rising interest US rates may keep the Dollar from collapsing more this week. But in general investors are catching on that Asian currencies are firmer and our stock markets more buoyant. Three years ago the Dow Jones index was about the same level as today, but during this same time the SET index more than doubled in value, including this year's correction. Hence the transfer of wealth out of the USA, so often mentioned here in the past, is in continued motion. Unlike various others, I never predicted a sharp or sustained sell off in the US. Marc Faber for one has often and continuously over past years projected a NASDAQ below 800 etc……but my view was always a sort of a slow and painful petering-out on US equity prices and the US Dollar. Its happening and more are waking up to this reality.

Many assume that the Thai market only woke up in year 2003 and that before then things were boring. Not so, for many years previous to that more then a few smaller cap selections have soared in value. Its fair to say, for us here at thaistocks.com its been a good bull market for many, many years already...and this year is coming to a good end with Ticon shares marching up in value and trading volume.

HMPRO (4.16) This fast growing national home retailer has been favorably reviewed here for some time. During the year it fluctuated up and down about 20% but at today's price it is one of the few Thai stocks which is trading near the same value as when the SET index peaked slightly above 800 in January of 2004. The fundamentals are progressing well and their new coupon promotion a considerable success. HMPRO selection held up well during this otherwise turbulent year. Like some others, the quarterly earnings have been coming in regularly at the rate I first predicted in my positive write up. I maintain my long term buy view on HMPRO.

BH (15.9) This selection started the year around 13.80 and moved up some 15% to date, with occasional price surges to 17 or up 25%, if you include the dividend paid during the year. I first wrote up this stock last December '03, at then market price of around 14. Initially rating BH with a "buy on weakness" opinion. On August 20 '04, with BH trading at 12.80, I reviewed this stock favorably and re-rated… as I back then wrote: "Today I would change this view to a "buy for long term investment". I maintain this positive view. Several investors were concerned a while back with Bangkok Bank's large holding of BH stock and with the law mandating they divest their large block of shares. This concern was well overblown and unwarranted, glad it did not affect my view. BH is an astute marketer and a top notch health care provider. Today BH is and remains an "institutional darling’stock and a larger cap selection I have remained upbeat on for many months.

There are some other selections which I will review more about in the near future. Some I have abandoned like VNG, HFT, EGV and BCP. AJ I advocated taking profit around 6.20 due to new perceived serious competition coming to the market. Some I am glad to have later mentioned to avoid, after an initial upbeat comment like on TK. TK was a new issue last year, it got incredible positive press and broker reviews, only to horribly disappoint. Shows you again how many "investment traps" there are on the SET and how various sources of stock information is clearly bias. Several stocks I was told by members to become excited about, but I did not. Like CPH, AA and Raimon, glad I stayed away!

KTC is a similar "forever bullish’stock mentioned around "higher circles", but one I never warmed up on. So far I am glad about that. TTA, was mentioned some 2 months ago as stated to "take your profits on any price strength" and then there was some strength shortly after those comments. Since then, TTA has dropped off some 10%.

Often investment success is the ability to avoid or get out of a bad performing stocks. Some I did, others we got stuck with but I never wrote about "doubling up", or averaging down. Those members who took my super bullish comments on Ticon to heart, have or should have made it back by now. I remain very positive on Ticon and despite the 30% rise, my price objective is well into double digits, from what I can tell now.

Yet, sorry I/we did get stuck with some hounds, in hindsight. In any event I clearly expressed the view 6-7 weeks ago to prune it all down and buy aggressively into Ticon at 6 Baht. There was plenty of time and volume to get large amounts…

As always, all I do here is express my viewpoint, never making specific investment recommendations to you.

Last but not least, I am not excited about Thai IPO's.

I am no longer advocating to subscribe to Thai IPO's That is, until further notice…that is until Thai Investment Bankers do a better proper disclosure job on Public offerings.

There is just not enough pre-IPO information available on any of these IPO's and this is one main reason why most drop in value, right after listing. Its all a bit lamentable ...and unlike the Thai SEC told me in person, that IPO prospectuses available at their web site, we cannot find it there.

My professional understanding is that IPO prospectus must be filed and given to prospective investors before subscribing. Yes, before the IPO's are issued. But this SEC rule is and never has been followed here. Why? And I think Thai people/investors are getting tired of this nonsense as well, this is why most all IPO's lately drop in value on their first trading day, regardless of what they are intrinsically worth.

Best Regards, Happy Holidays and a Best and Healthy New Year 2005, if you celebrate this.