May 14th. Changes must be in the making!
April 30, 2023, marked the 26th anniversary of Thaistocks.com, the longest continuously running stock review web site in Thailand. Now changes must come, or I will walk off into the sunset.
For over a quarter of a century I have at this venue endlessly and without interruption delivered professional and unbiased viewpoints well beyond just market-parlour discussion including macro analysis. Outside of the developed stock markets this is almost unheard of. This was after my very successful & at the highest-level broker career in the US.
Since April 1997, I have visited over 150 companies, meeting in person with Management & CEOs, and producing analysis on 200+ companies leading to >200 articles on the website (while avoiding focusing on the negatives.) These articles identified investor bargains spelled out often at some length in my experienced reviews. While of course at times wrong -and never infallible- for sure I delivered better investor understanding to members (and free registered users who were able to see most articles several weeks later.) For many years I have frequently expressed disappointment in the behaviour of Thai brokers and how they run their businesses. Today we see why as the SET has increasingly become such a speculative venue & dominated by this; versus being a savings and investor vehicle for many. "Bad money chases out good" has for long been my fear.
The last 8-9 years have been difficult and frustrating for investors. The SET benchmark index today is lower than back in 2014, ever more speculative driven & nurtured often by inept brokers who seem to want to view everybody as day-traders, regardless of their stated investor objective. Sorry but that is my firm opinion.
This May 14th election now being especially important. The most important in 20 years, I dare say.
Foreign selling continued “en masse” in March/April due to pre-Thai election nervousness with nobody knowing how it will evolve. But also due to the never officially acknowledged reality that the SET volatility recently has been increasing mostly due to "DELTA stock speculation", rather than being driven by rational assessments. Over next 2 weeks all 1st Quarter 2023 earnings must be released also, hence there is some uncertainty on that as well.
Of course, I am generalizing to make another point; Thailand’s instituted defamation law in recent years has made it all but at the very least risky to critique specific abuses/companies, or to point fingers at dishonesty (of course with evidence); for fear of then getting threatening letters by Thai lawyers or worse. Just to mention one example from the last few years; a part solar-energy company vented a year ago in the Thai press and then continued with official SET released positive management statements on how good things were pitching-up; only to then report dismal quarterly earnings or even losses. But, if one were to point a finger at them for making clearly misleading statements, trouble can then emerge back for even if stating the truth. A Thai reality folie -and not tenable. Think about it.
I realize that after many years of substantial good returns, investor performance here has been dwindling away for many reasons; not least Thailand being caught up in the lethargic middle-income trap, inept brokers, speculative stocks, market driven IPOs, lax regulatory regulation and more. It does not have to be like this. But it is what it is and that is my opinion.
Repeating myself again - the Thai elections on May 14th will be a watershed event I dare to predict: as the present status-quo is untenable! If there are no big new changes, in time it will be a further step back for Thailand as it would mean the majority Thai people gave, a quasi-approval for maintaining the now meagre present situation. Yet, I am hopeful and much predict change is coming!
Alas, but if there is no electoral change, I will be hanging up my hat here once and for all, stop the web site, put it up for sale and retire from Thai stocks, as I will have lost my enthusiasm for Thai stocks. My next step would be to go and seek greener investor pastures elsewhere. But I am hopeful, especially that the 7 million young people here (which now can vote at age 18) will help make change happen!
For sure, Thailand remains a great retirement venue/country, pro tourist and family friendly. There are lots of other positives; for example, if you are 50 or above there are minimal headaches for long-term visas along with great medical care. But best you come with your own health insurance here, obtained from abroad -because as far as I can tell, after much checking, that Thai health insurance is rather expensive, at times exclusionary and also is never guaranteed renewable!
Shortly leaving for Portugal/Spain to partake during May in the 270 km, 16 day, EL CAMINO pilgrim hike, with 6-7 hours of 15-25 km walking every day. To take a step forward while taking a step backwards. A once in a lifetime event and a great time/place/undertaking during this time of critical changes coming -and seeing how in my own reflection what evolves/turns out. Hopefully for the better. Things always do change but not always for the better. Time will tell.
Best Regards to all Members and then some,
Paul Renaud
www.Thaistocks.com
