Lastest Monthly Update on the current model portfoflio.

paulren's picture
Category: 
Portfolio Update

December 7 th '06, notes:

On October 7, I added AJ to this model at the then market price of 2.98, now at 3.28. Then on Nov 7, I added CPN at 22.1, as my choice of a medium cap pick, now at 25.50. Last Month I stated "With the SET at 740 it probably is wise to be a bit more cautious in the shorter term", in fact the SET did pull back since and bounced back, yet as today is only fractionally higher. On November 15th I added DCC at 14.6 to this model (now at 14.8), and however continue to view DCC as a strong buy in a diversified portfolio. I do not include these recent picks above, as they were later choices and so would distort the true return. A stock which moves up in 4-6 months by 20% is lesser performance then one which moves up for say 15% in 2 months. This would require time weighted adjustment and I don't have the tools right at hand to show this.

 My view today is change the rating of this key model to a "long term buy view", from a strong buy view. The reason for this is only due to substantial price appreciation of various choices. For this reason I have introduced the earnings acceleration model last month, so to give members some new alternatives. It is always up to each member to evaluate his/her own investment objective and then make their own choices. TOG and CITY have been two disappointments. CITY I still much like and not giving up, but TOG reported a bit poor 3 Q earnings. TOG is suffering from the strong Baht vs. US$, so I would be more cautious and not average down. CITY is considered by the market an auto part supply story and all of those have been lagging recently. But I think this will change soon. SAT and TSC are my noted choices here. Today you see yet once again how smaller cap stocks, how I pick then, overall can and have substantially out-performed the SET index, which has not moved much at all this year. Most investors look at the Thai stock exchange as boring and unable to move out of its 3-4 trading range, you our valued members, see how wrong this view is. Best Regards & Happy upcoming Holidays, if you celebrate these.

Paul A. Renaud.

www.thaistocks.com

Integral footnotes: Stocks marked with an asterix (*) have gone XD during this period, hence as in the past I added the per share dividend amount paid, to the stocks market price, as of yesterday. (See below). The previous interim update on this model was shown on November 7 '06. As always all model portfolio's are at the link "article topics", then click "Portfolio Update". * Dividends paid on our stocks: Tipco paid already a 0.20 Baht interim dividend. TLUXE paid already a 0.15 interim dividend. SPALI will pay a 0.15 interim dividend. (Payment date in October 11) UMS declared a 1 Baht dividend, payable today. CITY declared a 0.16 dividend payable at the end of the year. For the Table please scrowl below:

December 7 '06 Monthly Update. Today I change this to a hold.(see below)
My "Strong Buy Model Portfolio".
High earnings growth & dividends, deserves higher then market valuation
Here I identified 7 stocks which I rated a strong buy, in my view.
Stock Symbol Price on June 23, '06 Price on December 7, '06 % Change
CITY* 2.04 2.58 26.5%
SMIT 1.92 2.16 12.5%
SPALI* 2.56 4.17 62.9%
TICON 15.50 20 29.0%
TIPCO * 5.90 8.25 39.8%
TLUXE* 2.36 3.47 47.0%
TOG 2.48 2.3 -7.3%
UMS* 10.90 16.6 52.3%
Average increase, assuming equal investment in each: 32.85%
SET Index as of June 23 '06: 660
SET Index as of November 7 '06: 746
SET change during same period 13.0%