Investor comments from the recent past. Year 2020.

paulren's picture
Category: 
Introduction

Investor apathy.   Beware in becoming or are already an investor "pre-mortem". Where one deliberately most only considers the worst case scenarios and so solely see and fear downside in any investment -resulting in never dare to take the plunge. Stuck in investor mediocrity for years, just as so many have in the past -and likely in the future.

Recent exact investor comments posted this year at the front page of this website. Note how in mid-March 2020, I turned max bullish only to view taking profit in early June, as is documented with model portfolio's shared with contributing members nicely outperforming the SET index.  Since then, I  posted another new model which to date (Dec 1 2020) is also nicely outperforming the SET index:

"September 8 2020. I remain broadly SET cautious. Thailand tamed the Covit19 virus in a big way but at a great price to its economy.  The low economic nadir point has not been reached yet -and lots of leadership confusion remains; not least on the zero tourist front which was a main economic driver in recent years.  Its anybody's guess when tourists will be allowed back?  In the meantime politics is heating up while broad economic numbers keep pointing downwards.  Yet stock markets are always forward looking...its a market of stocks here rather then a stock market and while I have a few solid ideas at present, I remain lethargic on the market overall.

"May 22th, 2020.  After turning max. bullish in mid March (see just below) now with the SET up some 30% since, I have today turned more cautious not least due to broad earnings downgrades starting in the 2Q -and as I perceive the market likely now ahead of itself. Bravado yes on Thailand's ability to abate the CV19 virus, but alas at the cost of a serious economic damage, lead by the collapse of the important tourist/related industry.   On June 7th, I ended my model portfolio shown to members with  a 32% gain.

"March 14th, 2020.   Some Thai stocks have now become an investor-bargains, much worth considering.   Over the past 3 years at this web site, I increasingly expressed investor frustration over some industry practices, broad market high prices besides broker discrepancies -and so increasingly endured discouragement.  Yet, over the last dire few weeks much has changed with many Thai stocks loosing half their value.  This is so a game changer...yet beware of "wall flowers" and some "bad apples". :)

"The market here, along most others, has all but crashed and most big and smaller shares have lost 1/3 to 1/2 or more of their value, all around the CoronaVirus19 (CV19) fears...more like panic.   It pays to start asking is it panic, crisis or investor  rare opportunity?  Only due to the market meltdown, and investor bargains which go begging, I with vigor claim its a new opportunity!  So for the first time in 3 years have turned broadly Thai stocks bullish. (Starting March 14th 2020, SET index at 1128).

"Thai Shares have at present broadly priced in a sustained economic recession and much lower expected earnings for many quarters to come. But if you take the view year 2020  now being a lost year and earnings bouncing back in 2021, one can make a compelling investor case and I want part of it.   Thailand has shown to have a way of coping with the V19 outbreak based on its population. The infection rate is lower compared to the top 30 countries so far.  Various Thai hospitals are now offering testing for V19, and it seems for whatever reason this virus does not like tropical/hot weather.  Vs. notably USA which by far still can't get its hands on enough test kits, need a doctor prescription along with some run-around...and new cases increasing by the day.  Thailand's impressive response is not surprising in light of the inaugural (USA) Johns Hopkins University Global Health Security Index (2019) survey which assessed the preparedness of 195 countries for epidemics and pandemics.  It ranked as the sixth best prepared nation in the world and was the most prepared upper middle income country.  Thai people are taking this very seriously and conforming to temporary stay home directives.

"Thai interest rates are the lowest ever, the Baht currency super-rise has been tamed -yet looks stable and the Thai health care system is praised the world over, as is now demonstrated.  The strong currency in recent years much damaged the export and tourist industries and turned the country far less competitive on a number of fronts. This was at first positive but then turned into a villain which now has been tamed.  In the meantime, the winds have been "blown out of the sails" on US stocks where their historic bull run has come to an abrupt end -for many good reasons.  While US stocks became overvalued and over hyped, Thai stocks are now among the cheapest ever adjusted for the level of record low interest rates.  Many now dividend yield yearly 5-7%, or above.  Compared to the 10 year Thai govt. bond yield of barely 1.3%, this is now the biggest divergence ever observed!  Thai politics is as always messy and as shown in the past many business can prosper despite -as has been shown over many years. "

Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com