On investor acumen & US staleness.

On US investor laziness & over-staleness which has evolved in the US and which at some point will almost by definition come to a bad ending.

Many so-called investor experts write how its "always wrong to use any emotion" when it comes  to investing. Private bankers I suppose love this most, as they want all their clients to just keep investing, holding-on and adding more to infinity -as then their yearly fees are assured and keep coming in.

Yet, here I dare to say:  Every buy/sell decision in stocks has by definition at least some emotional aspect; as you never know in advance if you did the right thing -until later.  Dealing/deciding among high uncertainty in stocks is the "grave dancer above the moribund consensus";  just like art -hence some emotions are inevitable.

Lots of counter comments on that I guess coming from spoiled US stock investors.  I.e. How one should just regularly (US stock) invest, "leaving all emotions out of it".  Yes, don't we know, "dollar cost averaging" was a/the no brainier and worked well for soo many years there. I just don't think that will continue, not least as most big caps US stocks there, as elsewhere, are likely well overvalued.  The very ones these touted low cost favored index funds own most of.  I’d hate to be around when that investor style no longer works. 

For myself, I am more of an alpha stock picker, whereas as just one-off example, a poor performing company but now clearly getting better, can in fact be a good investment. :)   Never forget: Past good returns (and it's investor style in those times) are never an assurance to future good returns. This is a key mantra to superior returns in stock market investing.  Things always change and not always for the better.  

The Thai SET is a good related example around this theme.  For years it performed overall well, speculators galore had their days. Thai IPO’s just about always went up the first 1-2-3 days, only to after dwindle or even collapse in price.  By then “nobody cares”, as one CEO of a prominent Thai broker firm told me back then. “Thai people are different then investors, they all want to trade” as many brokers stated-promoted for years. Enforcing regulation and fining broker abuses is “too tough”, or too negative -or whatever.  Well, it all ended poorly did it not.  Today, the SET remains boring for long, except for a few biggest cap. Stocks… , the economy is a lame-duck and the country stuck in the middle income trap.  Only a massive increase in productivity will get it out, and that is not happening from what I can tell.  So, how long this will last, nobody knows?  At last, the SET/SEC is getting the message now and new far stricter rules and fines are being implemented as well as the SET publishing finally, after my long pointing this inadequacy out, on how IPO’s fare post their first trading days!  See here:   https://web-fundraising.sec.or.th/ipo    Better late than never.  In the meantime, hurrah to these high 6-7% dividend paying much lower priced select quality smaller cap. Thai stocks -as I know them so well!  Compared to barely 0.4% for Bank saving deposits, or 1-2% at most, on over-touted/owned biggest cap Thai stocks with on top their double to triple to SET mkt, averages, valuations.

Today there is a letter published in the BKK Post by yours truly where I dare to predict how the Thai Baht will likely tame down vs. other currencies in months to come.  Time will tell.  Many here don’t understand how Thailand is now a no-inflation country, as they most only look at buoyant food prices, or high rentals in high tourist areas.

Best Regards,