The gurus are full of near term predictions, bullish and bearish. But What IF?

PaulRen's picture
Non Thai Article

Ups and downs. Full of near term predictions.

Many people, professional investors and others, are currently making all kinds of predictions on rising stock markets and consolidating bitcoin values; their demise or more likely as these see it, its resurrection to still higher levels, in time.  Davos Switzerland at present, with all its gurus stuck in the big snow, call for it either "up or down";  most dressed up in clothes, money besides brains believes things can't stand still for while?  Why travel to and/or pay to hear predictions of price consolidation or even stagnation.   

But what if the bellwether markets or coins (say Bitcoin) just stands still for a while...doing nothing or next to nothing?  Thereby defeating just about all these gurus' bull and bear predictions.The devil in the market likes to prove everybody wrong. Just like not to decide is to decide, doing near nothing is actually doing something -and in this case UN-nerving most all the glamorous predictions.

Its easy to forget in recent times that pre present exuberance, stock and other markets often move little for some time, and then in little time besides suddenly make a big move, up or down.. Perhaps like a crocodile which just lays in the sun all day, to un-expectantly make a big be over with barely minutes later. You can miss it in a blink of an eye, at which point it goes back to dormancy. Not likely at presently most would say as there is lots of excitement, but then again markets love to surprise!  No surprise can be the surprise.  "Dont just do something, sit there".    The Picture shows rain or shine, or neither..but keep guessing.

Many years ago when I lived in Wisconsin, USA a college friend of mine's Father had a nice cottage right on a lake. Friends/relatives would come to visit and always wanted to take his boat to go fishing as they pointed, "way over there", i.e. on the other side of the lake. No, no, not so much because they loved the boat ride (it was an old dudd boat besides leaking), but because they were just inherently convinced the fishing was/must be better "over there", some 4-5 KM on the other side. It seems its in our DNA to think over there is better.  My friends' Father knew this was just not true as he had been fishing on this lake for decades and so then told them realize "the fishing is just as good right here on this side". Besides noticed how often local astute fishers form the other side of this same lake, came to his shores, for the same reason. Similar is true when we travel or want to travel, as wherever we go there we are -and yet just when we get there we think of going somewhere else.  We want to see it all and thereby so often can miss the unexpected.

Maybe this is our restless soul and once we tame it a bit it can bring us more inner peace, besides in business better results or investor returns. I don't think we have to be on the go all the time to be happy...its just in one's head.  Nor should we assume markets or coins, will necessarily make a move all the time, in time often they don't...ah, just when all assume they will.  Maybe the time has come for Coins' and US stock prices to just take a breather?  In a fast moving and hyped up world, step aside sometimes & feel the breeze, smell the roses and sometimes sense "the moment of nothing"...that is until the Dragon rises again.

Best Regards,

Paul Renaud.