Full Performance Record of the Original Top 30
Thailand's smaller "value’shares -as chosen by thaistocks.com- are just now generating triple digit total returns and this, during the past 3 difficult years. Here I show how the SET benchmark index dropped in value, while our chosen "top 30", rose over 140% during the same time period. />
As of April 1, 2002.
Below is the full performance record on our "top 30", all as fully documented here every quarter, since this master portfolio's inception on January 2 1999.
/>On January 2 1999, we introduced our own -then most preferred- Thai "value’shares. We called this our "top 30’smaller cap portfolio. Our aim was to track, document and then demonstrate that in fact smaller Thai value shares, by far, beat the SET index benchmark. To our knowledge nobody else has documented how a representative group of smaller Thai value shares compared to the SET index, during the past difficult 3 1/4 years.
Below is the updated tabulation of this model's latest performance, all since January 2, 1999.
My advocating a "billion US Dollars worth of market capitalization" to a broad smaller cap. portfolio, has shown that on Thailand's battered stock exchange, impressive performance remains in the smaller value shares! The performance lead over the SET benchmark has increased the most in the past 18 months. />Indeed, its been a silent bull market here in secondary Thai shares for a long time.
To global individual investors our message remains mostly the same: consider investing in values on the SET -not just trading the large listed SET firms.
In early 1997, I started visiting, analyzing and then reporting about the many undervalued, export oriented, smaller capitalized "value" Thai listed stocks. First, because I like many others, feared a Baht devaluation and secondly I observed over ten years prior how the SET valued smaller stocks increasingly less. All this despite often good earnings results together with very low stock valuations! Since 1997, I never bought the broker argument that Asia stock markets are purely liquidity driven! But few listened.
High current earnings and therefore annual cash dividend payments have demonstrated superior portfolio performance, as I long so proclaimed.
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There continues to be solid capital gain (while enjoying high dividend income) opportunities in the many smaller & medium sized Thai shares.
Despite their favorable performance, especially so in the past several months, many still continue to be undeservingly undervalued. This as compared to the more liquid large capitalized SET shares. But here as well I have advocated some stellar performers like STECON, BANPU, CPF. While staying away all along from Banks and Communication stocks.
Many of these keep posting solid earnings increases yet this is rarely reported by the news media. But in the second half of 2001, as a group, the smaller value cap's woke-up and share trading volume has increased impressively ever since. Their average p/e ratio is now also higher at around 6. But I believe there is more upside potential to around a current p/e of 8.
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Three and one quarter year cumulative performance record of our "top 30". Long ago called a "smorgasbord of value."
All as of March 31 '02. |
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As Thaistocks originally "pounded the table" on Jan 2, '99 and so told CNBC TV on 4/30/'99. Since April of 1997 we have advocated this winning investment thesis here. |
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"Thailand's value shares have been ignored for years, this only due to their relative smaller market capitalization. Today they are the long proven performance stars as we told you long ago they would be" Paul A. Renaud |
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Agri/Food |
Price on Jan. 2, '99 |
Closing prices on March 29 '02* |
% Change |
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Stock Name |
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CHOTI XD 29+20+31 |
129.00 |
219 |
69.8% |
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CM XD 4+3+4 |
29.00 |
58.25 |
100.9% |
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CPF XD/XR,split,3, +2.50+1.6 |
44.00 |
128 |
190.9% |
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GFPT XD/XR 1.3+0.5 |
6.10 |
52 |
752.5% |
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STA XD 0.25 |
40.00 |
33.75 |
-15.6% |
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TAF XD 1+3 |
15.50 |
59 |
280.6% |
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PR XD 3.75+4+5.25+2.5 |
49.00 |
104.5 |
113.3% |
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TC XD 2.00+0.5+1.0 |
18.00 |
20.6 |
14.4% |
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TUF XD10.25+12+split+5.1+1.23 |
144.00 |
171 |
18.8% |
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Various |
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CIT (delisted at 45) |
22.50 |
45 |
100.0% |
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TCB XD 2.5 +3.5+3 |
55.00 |
90 |
63.6% |
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METCO XD 11+6+8.5 |
60.00 |
119.5 |
99.2% |
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SUN XD/XW 1.8+1.7+2 |
17.50 |
35.5 |
102.9% |
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SAWANG XD .8+.5+.8 |
12.00 |
19.9 |
65.8% |
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THIP XD 1.80+1+1.25 |
26.00 |
28.05 |
7.9% |
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CMBT XD 1+5+4.50 |
25.00 |
99.5 |
298.0% |
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S & J XD 3+4+4.50 |
14.25 |
76.5 |
436.8% |
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SPI XD 1+1+1.50 |
18.25 |
73.5 |
302.7% |
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BAT-3K XD 1.50+1.5 |
33.75 |
34.25 |
1.5% |
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CPL XD 2+3+3 |
15.50 |
35.25 |
127.4% |
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Textile |
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BRC |
8.70 |
10.7 |
23.0% |
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PAF XD .5+.5 |
8.7 |
26 |
198.9% |
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SUC XD 2.40+1.25+1.25 |
14.50 |
19.1 |
31.7% |
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TNL XD 2.5+3.5+4.0+6+7 |
19.00 |
136 |
615.8% |
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TPCORP XD 1.5+2.5+4.0+4.5 |
10.00 |
92.5 |
825.0% |
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TTI XD 5.0+1.5 |
18.75 |
31.5 |
68.0% |
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TTL XD 3.0+3.0 |
23.75 |
47.75 |
101.1% |
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UF XD 4.5 +1.0 |
14.50 |
21.5 |
48.3% |
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HT XD 13.5 |
71.00 |
63.5 |
-10.6% |
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UT XD1.50 +1.40+.5 |
9.00 |
14.8 |
64.4% |
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As of closing on 3/29/ '02, average % change of my "top 30", since inception: |
169.9% |
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* Includes all dividends, rights offerings and splits issued & declared during this same period. |
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SET as of January 2 '99: |
360 |
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SET as of March 31, '02: |
373 |
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SET index change during this same 3 1/4 year period: |
3.6% |
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Excess performance over the SET index benchmark: |
166.3% |
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SET as of January 1 '01: |
269 |
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SET as of March 31, '02: |
373 |
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SET index change since Jan 1, 2001: |
38.7% |
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+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
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NOTES: |
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The smaller value shares keep by far outperforming the SET index benchmark. And their lead is climbing to ever higher levels despite this years solid SET rally. |
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As of June 30 '01, the increase here shown was 123%. Today you can see it is at 170%! |
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All mkt. prices here shown are for the local shares price, plus all dividends & rights offerings all tabulated since Jan 2 '99. All exactly as originally advocated to our members on Jan 2, '99. |
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All performance tabulations are assuming no changes in allocation and that an equal amount was invested in each stock. for splits. It is assumed all dividends were received at the end of this period, hence the returns here are slightly understated. All stock prices are for the local shares, as shown by the BKK post on Saturday March 30 '02. Some stocks like CPF, TUF and PAF show the price before adjusted |
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FOOTNOTES: The smaller value shares keep by far outperforming the SET index benchmark. And their lead is climbing to ever higher levels. As of June 30 '01, the increase was 123%. Today you can see it is at 143%, even while the SET benchmark had a rougher second half last year!
All mkt. prices shown are for the local shares. We added at the end, all dividends & rights offerings since Jan 2 '99. All as originally advocated to our members on Jan 2, '99.
All performance tabulations are assuming no changes made and that an equal amount was invested in each stock. All stock prices shown are for the local shares- as shown by the BKK post on Saturday, December 29 '01. For tabulation simplicity, CPF and TUF stocks are shown before their stock splits. The actual returns are clearly understated as my show returns assumes (for ease of calculation purpose) that all dividends were received at the end of this 3 year period. Hence, actual realized returns would approach some 200%!
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| Too few investors are participating in what is working well on the SET. We say to you, get access to the right network and information source! |
We have posted regular quarterly updates, since inception of our "top 30" model on Jan. 2 '99. All stock prices shown here are the last closing prices, for the local (L)shares.
Below is the performance record on all individual stocks reviewed at our site, since January 2 '99: Since the percent tabulation shown below, most all are far higher in value today.
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TIME WEIGHTED CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE |
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ALL THAISTOCKS.COM 1999/2000 RECOMMENDATIONS |
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Date of |
Original |
Price on |
Price |
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First Mention |
Price |
2/20/01 |
Appreciation |
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CPF |
6/1/99 |
45.00 |
152.0 |
237.8% |
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CIT |
5/15/99 |
16.0 |
45.0 |
181.3% |
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CMBT |
4/2/99 |
24.5 |
68.5 |
179.6% |
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TNL |
9/8/00 |
48.0 |
78.5 |
63.5% |
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KWH |
1/25/00 |
27.5 |
40.0 |
45.5% |
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PR |
2/15/99 |
45.0 |
60.5 |
34.4% |
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CM |
2/1/99 |
32.0 |
41.5 |
29.7% |
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BANPU |
3/1/00 |
18.0 |
22.0 |
22.2% |
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METCO |
1/15/99 |
68.0 |
78.5 |
15.4% |
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SUC |
3/15/99 |
13.8 |
14.5 |
5.1% |
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GFPT |
6/1/99 |
9.6 |
9.9 |
3.1% |
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PDI |
6/16/00 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
2.2% |
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SFP |
6/1/99 |
52.0 |
53.0 |
1.9% |
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MAKRO |
4/2/99 |
65.0 |
61.0 |
-6.2% |
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KCE |
12/10/99 |
75.0 |
66.0 |
-12.0% |
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LRH |
7/13/99 |
23.3 |
19.8 |
-15.1% |
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RCL |
3/15/00 |
34.5 |
29.0 |
-15.9% |
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THAI |
3/29/00 |
39.0 |
32.0 |
-17.9% |
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CTW |
9/1/00 |
15.5 |
12.3 |
-21.0% |
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SINGER |
4/2/99 |
37.0 |
25.0 |
-32.4% |
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BAT-3K |
3/1/99 |
33.0 |
18.8 |
-43.2% |
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Thaistocks.com |
Time-Weighted Return |
18.5% |
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SET |
Time-Weighted Return |
-4.1% |
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Thaistocks.com is an independent, unbiased, unaffiliated, content-driven web site founded in April of 1997. We deliver to our members no-nonsense investment opinions focusing on qualitative rather than quantitative analysis. on location in Thailand, we publish all research & reports through the internet -worldwide.
Best Regards to all our viewers!
Paul A. Renaud
