Enjoy the upswing, new ideas, travelogue.

PaulRen's picture

 I will shortly update some pictues, please visit again by 9:30 AM

Enjoy the upswing, don't try to hard. 2 new ideas. Travelogue.

Things have worked out quite well to the patient investor. I took some discipline and conviction to hang in there, as I viewed to do, over the past many months but as we today see more and more: it was the right thing to do.  By April some of the growth stocks showed renewed buoyancy already and it only got better as the June rolled on . “Sell in May and walk away” would have been the "kiss of death", as it looks right now.  We all will see how my stock model comes in with its official 6 month performance by July 1.

Surely its possible that there is post coup honeymoon correction just as I celebrate the 6 month model (July 1)? or into mid year...but this will likely by another buying opportunity. The Western press for the most part has still not understood that what is happening now in Thailand is a huge net longer term positive! Many stalled reforms of all kinds are now moving forward full speed.  In time we will see how a few months of non-democratic leadership will bring in reforms which would have otherwise taken years to bring forth.  This in fact is what happened in 1992 when the coup leaders in those days brought in K.Anan which over the following 2 years changed well over a hundred outdated laws and brought in many positive reforms.

The SET is up some 4% since May 22 and so has outperformed just about any other SE Asian market, just at a time foreigners where selling (but recently this has reversed -as some got the message).

Now is the time to keep letting the portfolio of diversified selections keep working for us -and always in an uneven way- likely rocket up some more -before the year end.  The market sentiment has changed for the better.

I have purposely not “polluted” this site with too many new comments new stock or trading ideas because the view is to just hold tight not make too many changes and let things work out more.  

To recap, I did take good profits on SITHAI at 25.75, just before the stock split in early May. Same with GCAP yesterday at 3.70 where I nailed an 85% profit. Both stocks look a bit pricey to me now.  Then, I just recently favorably mentioned WHA (30) and ECF (2.62) in our lounge, as new fresh ideas I would be accumulating.  Depending on things go or change over the next 2 weeks, I will very likely add these 2 in my next model.  Note also how PCSGH (10.70) has had a nice near 25% upward move after I mentioned it a couple of months ago. (I wanted to include it in the model but that just creates more work/distortion for me as the model is not time adjusted.)

I plan to be in Bangkok end of the month. DEMCO promised me to have a dinner together and WHA confirmed a visit.  I also plan to have a meeting with a very informed professional regarding Thai fixed income, i.e. bonds etc..   For some of us this will make sense at some point, i.e. taking profits and moving some money into more conservative bonds for average interest rates likely around 5%,  similar with property or infrastructure funds!  I see this a good venue for us if the market overshoots at some point as it often does…going forward we all need to understand fixed income alternatives better and I am determined to learn more about that. Keep posted.


Regarding my last trip/travels which some of you have asked I write about.

During the month of May, I drove around with an Avis rent a car some 2000 km all up and down the East cost of AU, the Big Ocean Road and to the "end of the world, for beauty and introspection. I chose the lessor tourist visited Melbroun to Sydney route, vs. Sydney to Brisbane. I took some nice long walks in the woods.

Avis has the best car rental deal and it was easy enough to just rent the car with an extra GPS mounted right to the windshield. You can use your smart phone’s GPS as well but then you have to look at it and in AU its against the law to phone/look while driving. The country is also very strict with its humble 100 and 110 km per hour driving speed limit. There are mounted expensive cameras everywhere taking pictures if you speed, which I do not.

At the end of my trip I flew one week to Byron Bay a hip place full of alternative life styles and interesting people, at least for a short while. Its gone up scale over the past few years and real estate prices are over inflated, for what you get. I saw some dolphins swim with surfers. I took a weekend photography course with a real pro (Ms.Caroline Fisher) given at the Byron Bay Community Center, and immensely enjoyed that.

When I flew there from Melbourne, amazing how not once did they check/ask to see my identity. Same with hotels, they don't ask/care for providing any passports/identity. Odd how AU is such a nanny state in and so many ways in step with the US  ah..so concerned about security/safety…yet a place where you can check into a hotel without even showing proof of identity. To me its time AU does its own thing more and less what USA talks them into.

Australia in general & real estate is very expensive and hence so are rents and hotels. One has to wonder how sustainable that is?  I have been wondering if there could be an overdue property crash?  With commodities (notable Iron ore) soft, the mining sector, a key in Aussi, is in the doldrums. China their main trading partner is slowing down.. Taxes there are on the way up and the relative high interest rates politics is what is keeping the Aussi$ too firm.  Due to high salaries and benefits to the masses, relative to other global destinations, prices here are high in AU.

One often senses the nanny state rightful portrayal. One graffiti/motto I saw said "those whom don't innovate regulate" and they do.  In one town I visited, some drunk teenagers were killed when they swayed off the road and hit a 400 year old tree. They promptly cut down that tree even while it was not obstructive -and the great white shark culling is also an on going tragedy on their East cost.

Nature, the country and its endless in numbers and length long beaches are wonderful and immensely beautiful; chuck full of tropical & high variety of birds making all kinds of sounds and friendly (not shy) too. Aussi is a nature's heaven.

The people are friendly and smiling close to the outdoor which is soo beautiful. Again, this country is full of birds of all kinds and colors which enhance their nature.  I had wonderful weather and great temperatures 15-25 and it was the low season -so a great time to tour.  Along the way I visited with 3 different members/friends and so had some great conversations and visits as well. 

Best Regards,

Paul A. Renaud.