The end of an era. Even while investor wise it worked out well.

When I started Thaistocks.com on April 30 1997, I much believed then a new exciting era was emerging but 27 years later, I was mostly wrong. This even while investor-wise it worked out rather well.

Back then there was lots of excitement.  The coming of the internet some 28 years ago, for the first time in history, allowed professional people to write & share about things they knew/studied/devoted themselves to -and for a relatively low price, hundreds or more could tune-in and benefit from it.  Hurray.  It was the dawn of a new Era. Or was it.

Since then of course we know how this evolved….all kinds of information flourished “en masse”, with much of it fake/inflated/spinning and/or made to pump wrong narratives.  Information is not wisdom!  And most of all, more and more information does not correct wrong information; it’s not at all a self-regulating system where eventually a new truth emerges.  Unlike in the sciences there are no peer reviews and no self-correcting forces which in time forces truth to surface nor wrongs to be corrected.  In fact, alas, too often the opposite has proven true.  On the internet, unless you are very careful and then some, you get the good with the bad and too often its impossible to know the difference; whether its global affairs, or politics, or investor-research or... well the list goes on.  I don’t need to dwell more here as by now we all know what I am talking about.

History memory-lane.   Consider for example when the printing press was invented over 500 years ago. Many believed back then people would be able to educate themselves, read & learn and empower -ever more. Back then as in 1997, a new great era has emerged, or so many thought.  In a key horrific way/twist and for some 200 years on a horror of the opposite happened.  Scientific & religious writings where rather boring, anyway to most all people.  So instead, what really took off more than anything?   It was a book called “The Hammer of the Witches”.  It claimed there were some 300,00 witches in France alone and over 1.8 mill. in Europe. This book became “one of the best sellers in all of Europe”.  (See page 95 of the book “NEXUS”, by Yuval Noah Harari (2024).  Witches' book was such an alarming publication that it took and mesmerized the masses more than anything else in those days.   Instead of new written information becoming a salvation, it created a horrific period where mostly Women and even Children as young as age 5 were tortured & burned, whether they confessed being a witch, or not!   A very dark long period in medieval Europe brought on by the invention of books;  it never occurred to anybody before that witches existed and were a reality to persecute in horror.   Any person and especially attractive white women, or somebody thinking "out of the box", or say rejecting religion risked suddenly being labeled a witch -with a dreadful & torturous end!  And if not confessed they were tortured until they did so and then regardless executed, often by fire.  So much for the information revolution at the outset.  Should we not all ask yourselves what about today?

The internet, while in many ways positive, surely did not bring on what I thought it would some 3 decades ago.  A tsunami of information increasingly emerged which all but drowned much of the good while confusing most. Not to mention the detriments of (mostly young) people spending these days more time on-line, then off line -with suicide and mental health depression stats rising more then ever before.  Sad. ***   Of course there are positives, but are we taking the good with the bad, or visa versa?

Then there was another but very different phenomenon which I missed as a young professional back then post rising to the highest US ranks in my field.  Most all people will listen to their car-mechanic or Doctor or Dentist, Accountant etc…and pay money for professional viewpoints/advice -even while realizing there are no guarantees its going to be right.  Yet, when it comes to their money/savings/capital, they feel this is “private” and for them only to decide as they know best, no need to listen, learn educated themselves, after all its “their hard-earned savings”.  How many times have I encountered people of all sorts whom have no clue about finance/investments  -yet have no interest at all in considering/paying for opinions of people in the profession. Even often then telling me how it is.  I remember a teacher whom used to talk to me in the parking lot here how he had amassed some capital when he was a professional football player and now very interested “in knowing & learning more about investments”.  Yet, while he went jogging daily and played golf to no end, never spend any time at all furthering his skills/understanding in that.  Nor, did he ever ask me a single question on this.  The point being, this is rather very typical!

Just to go on a bit on this. Then there are increasingly many whom just believe -and it’s a mindset- “all stock markets are manipulated”, so they claim with gusto and pride as they surely know, “never to invest in any stocks”.  Or alternatively, they are so ultra negative they just own gold/silver while analyzing nothing except with a “confirmation bias” in their belief on how surely “terrible things are”.   Of course the daily news spinning confirms this,..as bad news carries the day.  Not to deny, yes global stability is much shaken presently I think mostly due to US war mongering of late.  A big delusion of US hegomony that they can still rule & dictate to the World.  

Of course sometimes these have a point and an "ax to grind”, as banks/brokers often pump investments or noncompetitive funds they want to sell -or over-trading, which all creates commissions, vs responsible investing which can create superior returns.  Relationship-banking galore has as well been a modern day curse; where relationships are worshiped -to the detriment of investor results. Oh well.

When I worked at Morgan Stanley and so now then regularly read their top-quality research, I was often amazed how different their analysts presented their views of things. I was already a seasoned broker back then and regularly read the WSJ and other paid subscriptions & research.  Yet, their views were so different then mine. They were often right while mine where wrong, as I learned over time.  I so grasped first-hand back then how what we think we know about the world/investing/trends etc…is often wrong and distorted -even while most think “they know, as they read the news.”  Another fallacy and often a trap.

Last but not least, most economies' are driven by smaller companies. It’s recently estimated in Thailand that over 80% of GDP is derived by such. Yet, as here pointed out relentlessly for many years, such smaller companies are rarely if ever analyzed or written-up by brokers as these cater to speculators and institutional investors which pay far higher commissions.  These are all “liquidity obsessed” as they portray liquidity as an all encompassing mantra which all should adhere to!  Totally ignoring that shares traded liquidity is soo very relevant to the investor in question!   Surely individual investors don’t have the same (liquidity) requirements as mega big institutional investors. So here you yet another grave ingrained distortion pushed on to the masses/investors.  Point being that in Thailand at least, smaller often faster growing companies pay twice or more in yearly cash dividends as compared to their big cap stocks alternatives.

Putting is all together as I write at the end of a long period running Thaistocks.com is the conclusion that its all messed-up and even a bit hopeless?  Na ja, so being a victim of my own success I walk away in the sunset.  Not least,  Thailand for now remains stuck in the middle income trap which I here saw coming for some time.  Only a massive push to increased productivity will get it out of that.   Hence I have toned it down here….while spending my time “beyond Thaitstocks.com .

Best Regards & Asta la Vista,

www.thaistocks.com