The Day After.

PaulRen's picture


The Day After. Hang in there.

I've stated the stocks I most like on the coup news are GCAP, CHO and PYLON...of course DEMCO as well.  CHO and GCAP already had a nice run up in recent days and are clear model portfolio selections.  Surely there are many others but those come to mind just now.  A couple of weeks ago I viewed taking profit on SITHAI to have some cash on hand.


Unlike Western media amateur analyses, I don't see the SET turning into a bear market and the low point of the year has long been reached, instead it should just be treading more water and we all here just have to be more patient. I still expect to show positive returns in the model by July 1.  The low point of the SET will be when the low point of economic growth is on hand, and it looks to me that is around the present.

I am returning to Thailand in earnest the next few days -and with vigor-; this after a very nice time touring up and down the Eastern coast of Australia, ending my trip in Byron Bay.

The business of running Thailand has started in earnest again.  A new collection of agencies' heads and economists is a very, very good start - in fact, head over heals above the closed door cronies' methods of the Yingluck administration which was: get some relatives in charge who doesn't know a single thing about what to do, get the release of huge amounts of government money that is later "distributed" under a cloud of mystery, and see the economy go down the toilet. 

So yes, this sounds much better by way of contrast to the recent past.  In terms of the West, if they only considered the alternative - seven more months of administrative paralysis with no path out, continued grenade attacks against sleeping protesters, continued attacks against the independent agencies and the judiciary, and an administration that was defiant in the face of Constitutional Court rulings, one of which removed the prime minister and nine cabinet ministers for clear abuse of power - and if they compared that to what is happening now: - the violence has stopped, terror plots are being discovered and stopped in their tracks, some peace has come back to Bangkok, the farmers are being paid as promised, and the first steps to getting the country running after seven months of legislative paralysis have been taken.  All in just three days.  

The West is philosophically opposed to the idea of coups for any reason, (they view this de facto always as bad), and that will not change.  However, once the country has been running peacefully and smoothly for an extended period, once truly positive reforms are in place, and last but not least - a national election that is free and peaceful - then the West will likely grudgingly take notice at that. And perhaps realize that that would not have been possible otherwise. By then the SET index will likely be considerably higher.

In the meantime the SET will tread water and vacillate only to move up once the above reality sets in.  Of course there will be set backs along the way.  Here its always been a market of stocks instead of a stock market.

Best Regards,

Paul Renaud.