Beat Bond returns and then some.
A previous member only article, made available to all on October 2 "06.
Beat Bond returns and then some.
I have just updated the "strong buy view" model portfolio for members as
I have strong conviction that combined, and assuming one invests in a
diversified way in equal amounts to all, the results by next July 2007
will/should be attractive and above the SET index performance.
I have not yet updated the larger/broader model as I am awaiting
the 2 Quarter earnings results before making any changes. In
due time I will here post the update and note changes, if any.
It should be clear that in the past I never had such a large
number of stock selections, rated with "strong buy" views.
Please always remember, I do not recommend stocks, I just express my
own viewpoints, which I share with members. While select
articles are made available for all to see after some time, the model
portfolios are kept for members only, that is until they are
terminated. This so to keep showing a regular documented track
record. Brokers and their marketing officers do not have any
track record on their many recommendations, they do not keep track of
IPO performance after listing -and so nobody really knows how well
their investment recommendations truly faired over time.
After a fabulous year 2005, this year to date has been far more
challenging. In the first quarter I showed some 30% gains, and
rightly so expressed market caution in March when the Thai politics
flared up. I got going too early in May when I felt things were
getting better. Actually they were, but then the global
commodities boom took a mean correction (I told you in April to stay
away), this so dragged global markets down. Various regional
and other markets did far worse then the Thai SET. While I am a
long term value investor at heart, I did make a noble exception in
trying to call the bottom in mid June, so far this was right
and as the SET just set a 2 month high I think it will turn out to
hold. Notwithstanding any major catastrophy, I think the worst
is clearly over and that the Thai stock market will zigzag to higher
levels between now and into next year.
Of course I know I will have my losers and some members and
me will get frustrated with these, so is the anatomy of stock
markets. What I remind all members is to look for -and go for-
overall performance, which means proper diversification.
When I
was a broker in the US it happened more then a few times that a
portfolio I managed did well, but some bad picks dented the
performance. (I was one of the few Morgan Stanley brokers which
was allowed to manage client portfolios on my own; where the client
gave me limited power of attorney to make changes in their account).
On presentation of good results some clients would complain that a
particular stock was terrible and how better we could have done.
When I pointed-out that the overall returns where solid, some would say
"yes, but what a dog some of the stocks were". I would
answer, "true but overall we did well, did we not!" To which
some would actually say, "well yes if you look at it that way".
Overall returns is the only way I look at it, not this nonsense that
"a portfolio is only as good as the weakest link in the chain".
Nonsense, its overall returns which matter!
Currently the global news is depressing. We all see that
everytime we open the news, its the Middle-East horror. Its almost as
if there was no other global news. Bond salesmen along with
these so called Wealth Managers love to dwell on this and then go on
and state how bad news, is good for Bonds and right after this state the
high single digit returns which Bonds provide in turbulent times.
They do not tell the reader/investor how bonds fare bad when interest rates
or inflation rise, or how bonds have barely beaten inflation over the past 10, 25,
50 to 100 years. Or, how some of the bond funds they advocate have
high up-front charges making these marginal returns only come true if
one holds on to them for many years.
Ah..I wonder what would have happened to me had I been sold years ago on
investing only in bonds.
Happy Monday, August 07, 2006
Best Regards,
Paul Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com
SMIT (2.02) is just one of many of the undervalued smaller cap stock in my view and not known by many. It imports & services top-notch machinery from Germany and other developed countries..., machinery which make molds for parts -all these many parts -which global companies outsource -more then ever before.
