Australia, the next crisis in the making.

paulren's picture
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Non Thai Article

Australia, the next crisis in the making due in large part to complacency.

Lengthy and insightful articles from Bloomberg of late, which confirm my bearish view of AU since around 2015.

Only One Major Asian Stock Market Has Shrunk This Decade: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-04/world-markets-leave-australia-behind-in-land-of-shrinking-equity

Scary..
26 Recession-Free Years Hide a Darker Picture for Australia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/miracle-economy-turns-mediocre-as-policy-drift-drags-australia

A few days later, look at this awesomely scary contribution by a Medical Doctor, long member here, yes from Australia...very scary.
He responds to my critical member forum posting on AU.  I've been a AU bear for some 2-3 years, just before its currency dropped 20% back in 2014-15...its just a matter of time.

Thu, 05/10/2017 - 3:09pm

MaurBen   member contribution to www.thaistocks.com
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Joined: 30 Apr 1997 - 7:00am
Posts: 171

Yup, there's a deluge on articles there on Bloomberg, seemingly more critical and incisive than those in the Australian press. Depressing. If anything the situation is more dire.  People are in the main; amazingly complacent, and especially many of the young, just lazy. No idea where the sense of entitlement has come from, maybe because there has been no recession since 1991. Many bodies are riven with conflict, Parliament (no major party having a working majority in Senate for years, making passing any legislation and exercise in futility in negotiating with multiple independents); and even governing councils like Olympic Committee and Soccer are playing out their inner conflicts on the front pages of the press.  

The 'can do' attitude that built the country has largely disappeared. Now it's a 'cannot' and red tape attitude which most amazingly is often welcomed by the citizenry. 

One example, the now highest supposed electricity prices in developed world contrast with the widespread abundance of available energy sources in Australia (gas, oil, coal, even uranium.) This contradiction doesn't seem front of mind of the man/woman in the street yet. Maybe further rises in power bills will do the trick....

Long article on the back page of today’s Financial Review how most large companies have few/no-one with any Asian experience on their board (2%.) No mention of how it’s 1-2 generations late (or more.) Currently 17% Australians have Asian background or experience working there.

The distraction of the elites with abstract ideals, gay marriage, climate change etc contrast with the battlers who are concerned with more mundane day to day matters, having a job, paying the electricity bill, etc. In the main people are totally blasé about falling education standards at schools and the 'dumbing down' of University degrees. The  governing conservatives are planning to decrease funding to Universities further even as @ 24$ billion comes in annually from overseas students. Universities and probably later schools are going to be ripe for disruption.

Basically the country is  sleeping walking into a crisis with grossly indebted households. Flat wage rises are probably almost the final curtain on this period.  Seemingly only a major recession or crisis offers hope - of attitude change.