Are stock valuations telling us something?

PaulRen's picture
Category: 
Industry

In these grim summer times it might be good to look at a comparison of stock evaluations 10 years ago and today. I have retrieved the data from the excellent historical database of SET companies on this web site.  (An original posting by a Member of Thaistocks.com, as shared here last monht)

The average P/E values for a four year average from 91-94 was for 11 companies (some familiar to this site,       some are not):

PE old
TCB 11.1
PRANDA 14.7
TPC 20.7
SITHAI 22.4
OGC 24
DCC 25
MK 25.3
AJ 26.3
RCI 63.2

The average was a staggering 25.9. As a comparison the average P/E value for the companes from March 2005  was 7 (it would be even lower today).

PE new
TCB 8
PRANDA 5.6
TPC 5.8
SITHAI 8.4
OGC 8.3
DCC 10
MK 4.9
AJ 7.7
RCI 4.5

While some companies had a tremenduous growth that justified a high P/E (DCC, TPC, AJ) others turned out to    be laggards (SITHAI, PRANDA, RCI). The table below shows net profit increase ratio over the 10 years.

Profit increase ratio
TCB 2.9
PRANDA 1.9
TPC 9.4
SITHAI 1.2
OGC 2.9
DCC 19.8
MK 2.6
AJ 7.6
RCI 2

The corresponding net shareholder value increase, based on the change in P/E valuations but excluding any dividends.

Shareholder value increase (%)
TCB 109
PRANDA -28
TPC 163
SITHAI -55
OGC 0
DCC 692
MK -50
AJ 123
RCI -86

Although my comparison only includes a few companies I believe it indicates:
a) High PE’s doesn"t guarantee high growth.
b) High PE’s are vulnerable to a fall in the P/E’s over time, even if the growth is good
c) Todays low PE valuations may turn out to be real bargains if the depressed market sentiment changes and/or the growth is better than expected.

PS. I am sorry I had to show the data in four tables but I couldn"t post a proper table.