Beyond Thaistocks.com -until meaningful real reforms take place.
We are not and never were investment nor financial advisors/nor fund managers, just publishers of unbiased, experienced & long professional viewpoints with 40+years of investor experience. As always since 1997, I here only publish my own unbiased view points". "Integrity has always been my competitive advantage".
April 12 2024. Happy Songkran Thai New Year 2024.
There is a tunnel-underpass here which is a bit narrow, so it clearly states "no motorbikes allowed". Yet, just about every week there is an accident in there, almost always due to a motorbike crashing. Then the whole tunnel shuts down sometimes for many hours. Yet, Thai police are never there to fine the offenders (yes, foreigners as well). So this sad saga continues' week after week for years already: Tunnel closed, huge traffic congestion yet again and again all because violators do not get fined -coming out the tunnel. And the tragedy continues. So for some time most responsible car drivers avoid this underpass as they never know if its closed again, all due to violators not getting fined. Similar on the Thai Stock exchange (SET) were violators (and brokers) hardly ever get fined. And so "bad money chases out good", just as the good drivers then have to traffic congest elsewhere, avoiding this important tunnel-underpass.
March 25th: Predatory consumer lending at often very high usury rates is a real and mostly un-addressed problem in Thailand…because Thai banks here are stingy/difficult in providing any biz. loans to small operators. Most often only on submitting a land title deed for collateral. Hence these many finance co. have all but taken-over on such with their double digit + loan interest rates with strict rules/penalties if one is even a few days late paying or wanting to pay off the loan early.
March 14th 2024: Investing is not the same as trading which is most often the same as speculating. One reason why the Thai SET is hovering around 30-year lows, as is Thai retail investing participation. Its in good part because brokers directly and indirectly promote trading/speculating which in time so often creates losses -and so fleeing retail investors.
January 26th '24: Regarding the BKK Post article on "SET president optimistic for 2024": The following letter was published under my name in BKK-PostBag:
What is really needed are some long overdue SET/SEC besides broker reforms! As is now far too few Thai and expat retail investors see the SET as a meaningful savings/investment vehicle, mainly due to lack of confidence and in part lacking stricter regulations; yes with fines/jail sentences by the violators. Not least this entrenched habit of too often inducing retail investors (presently at record low participation at 28%) to over-trade, i.e. "churn and burn" practices, indirectly sanctioned by many brokers which in time leaves too many enduring losses -and so to never come back. "Burned once, twice shy". Paul A. Renaud.
December 28th: Bravo on IPO performance tabulation: After bringing this up as a dire-lacking issue here, it looks like Thai IPO's will finally show the/a tally of how they performed -over time- along with other pertinent/key information. I do take some credit on this -as I brought this up as lacking, many times over some years. Here is the link: https://web-fundraising.sec.or.th/ipo
December 21: Seasons Greetings. BTW, TOG (11.40) dividend adjusted, is at the same high price as last May '23, that is post it moved up 35% back then --on continued good earnings. Even while the SET tumbled since -and then some. TOG was at 6 Baht some 2 1/2 years ago, back when the SET index was close to 1600! Now lingering around 1400. TOG net profits more than tripled since, so out-shinning its stock price rise. (AUCT has also been a strong SET/MAI out-performer!). Both here repeatedly viewed very positively.
Yet, no broker now or since recommends a buy on TOG, yes now or since to their retail customers; instead we see speculative activity remains on/around most volume active DELTA, at a current p/e 63. VS TOG at p/e 12. Sad -and one core reason the SET lost its luster -and retail investors are all but fleeing -and then some. November 17: There is increasingly a crisis of confidence with Thai stock retail investors dropping to record low participation. For long outside forces got blamed. When it's mostly the way the local brokerage industry has been run, for too long. Directly or indirectly promoting trading vs.investing, this despite for decades many, many multiple studies have shown how amateur traders' almost always lose, over time. Then, "bitten once makes one twice shy". This unsustainable practice here is one key reason why Thai retail investors have mostly and increasingly abandoned viewing SET-stocks as a legitimate savings mechanism over time. Sad November 15th: At mid year '23 before and beyond there were lots of bearish & negative comments on global stock markets and economies worldwide, exacerbated more so then when MidEast re-flamed. This seemed to have changed dramatically lead by the US this week. Morgan Stanley came out a few days ago projecting multiple US Fed induced interest rate reductions next year. Then last night better then expected US inflation were released. US markets have rallied for days now, out of nowhere and climbing the "wall of worry". Sending all the bears hibernating and the short-sellers licking their doomsday wounds for now at least. November 6th: Thai stocks in general have been shattered this year. Yet, perusing Thai broker reports you would not know: 1) There is a highly successful/profitable listed company here which actually benefits earnings wise, from the tame Thai economy -and even more so from the unsustainable Thai consumer debt..., while paying 5% dividends (or 8 times more then local Thai bank deposit rates).Regarding 2 articles in Bangkok post lately "Investors wary of SET Potential" and "Brokerage advice clients..." The finger is regularly pointed at outside forces on why the local bourse is so bad -all year long. Mostly blaming foreign & outside events, but this so leaves 3 fingers pointing back. I.e. some weaknesses from within, which few there seem to address. Maybe its time to do some inward looking. Also, its a market of stocks here more than a stock-market and neither of these articles mention dominant export related stocks where a few companies here are doing rather well due in part being globally competitive -besides benefiting from Baht weakness currency. Many such pay high dividends as well. October 5th: There is a highly successful company listed here which actually benefits earnings wise, from the tame Thai economy -and even more so from the unsustainable Thai consumer debt..., paying 5% dividends (or 8 times more then Thai bank deposit rates). Surely as well as a prominent exporter, all over the world, in a defensive industry, so reaping higher profits margins, yet never pointed out by brokers here nor the press, nor here, alike. Again: one never knows about these here or most elsewhere -with all the endless macro comments to nauseam September 20 2023: The SET vacillates along with no new real positive drivers. Yet, here I've just done a considerable research job with 2 master articles -for members. This on a very successfully exporter in a defensive industry which is benefiting from triple positive demographics: Baby-boomers aging, ever more people glued on smartphones and computers, not least the much underreported "Myopia generation". Not least yielding over 5% in current dividends, while growing and benefiting from any Thai Baht currency weakness.
Regarding the very alarming high level of Thai consumer debt: Little has been said about consumer finance companies which eagerly facilitate all this -at high profit margins. We ask, as examples, do these always show the exact annual percentage levied on such and shown in clearest terms? Do they allow instant and easy early repayment -with no penalties? A consumer indebted person wanting to pay off his/her loan here is often told to "come back another day as first need to tabulate the amount still owed”. These stalling and other such tactics need to be addressed by the regulators. Soft, or not, predatory lending practices prevail and better consumer loan protections need to be forthcoming. Today July 1, The SET recovered nicely late last week all on seemingly more clear politics now and a new Govt. forming. Market can deal with good and bad news, but abhor uncertainty. Foreign institutions are not likely to come back until more clarity is present which appears is now starting to happen and next week should demonstrate this more. The last few weeks was a great time to pick up fundamental solid stocks/companies, as everything got sold off with the punters & speculators taking on a real "beating and spanking". Today June 20th, at the opening the SET index was down nearly 12 points most only because speculative DELTA (99) stock was designated the strict "T2", which means cash-balance only. A flag the SET puts on speculative stocks which are moving up or down too fast for no real fundamental reason. DELTA has been a highly speculated stock for long time, regularly in the top 5 most active list, if not the most active. Much influencing the SET-index along with mkt sentiment...especially during these more fluid times. DELTA is hugely overvalued at a trailing p/e of 79! In the past the SET was too lame designating it as such but this seems to have changed of late. Note how the MAI and sSET index, hardly move today showing how wild DELTA sets the tune too much, on SET benchmark index moves. Quality & long established listed companies which yield 6-7% tax-favored dividends & growing. With the Thai elections on May 14th and some changes likely for the better I dare to to remain positive on my pruned list of 7-9 high dividend choices...shared with contributing members along with good reasons why they are as well likely growth stocks in years to come. *** All stock investors fear so called “value traps” i.e. “Wall Flowers” -which rarely flourish -stock price wise. Fair enough. But the opposite is true as well -rarely explained! Inefficiently priced value choices. Where brokers and institutions' alike only consider large cap. stocks, ignoring the rest... a practice here for decades. Only because their handicap on demanding high trading liquidity. Most individual investors don’t have this constraint and so have a true -long in making- mkt. pricing inefficacy, advantage! Here that makes all the difference -as such are "less filling & taste great" choices. Often paying double the SET averaged in dividend yields, like around 5%. While many have superior long term growth rates along with less correlation to Western markets. I know them here like few others. On the Thai IPO market/process: While IPO's have been stale of late here, one should ask why? In the past these were routinely overpriced by Investment Bankers only to be saved on the first days' of trading due to speculators dominating. Post the first few days nobody knows, nor tabulates how they have fared 3,6 or say 12 months later.
Things can be a bit off on the Thai stock market -while ***Thai brokers are overall just average, as are their stock choices. In stock-markets however this can be a real advantage as it often means mis-pricings to take advantage of! In US and other markets, now out of vogue, this is more difficult as there are ample good brokers besides plenty smart investors & analysts there...hence difficult to beat them. Less so in Thailand. US stocks as well appear out of favor for now as I have argued since late 2021. Its unfortunate that many expats and others do not grasp this and just assume "things in life which could be better are often best avoided". Not so in stock markets where aberrations can truly be an investor advantage. As here shown for 25 years. Presently, Thai stocks as I pick them have a rather low mkt. correlation with the US/EU. October 11 2022.
"INTEGRITY IS MY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE". Since April 30 1997, I here full time and with passion deliver professional, objective, unbiased Thai stock market investor opinions & views. Creating substantial new wealth -over time. Visited in person over 150 CFO/CEO's of Thai listed companies. Then often write about companies reports-views & pictures. The long record shows this through regularly published model portfolios. Fully documented latest investor returns, see this link (but first register as a free member, see just below): https://thaistocks.com/content/ending-2nd-model-portfolio-today-stay-tuned Free registration takes less then 2 minutes, pls. visit this link: https://thaistocks.com/user/register
My message to many of you: Investor apathy...many are "perma-bears", where one deliberately or not considers worst case scenarios and solely see and fear downside in any investment -resulting in never dare taking the plunge. Stuck to investor mediocrity for years..in good part due to the ever dominant negative spinning news by mass-media.Thaistocks.com is an intelligent investment club sharing unbiased, objective & professional viewpoints full time, since April 1997. Through this media I have posted proprietary professional viewpoints, articles, over 100 in-person company interviews with managing directors full time since April 1997. I present added value investor& unbiased intelligence viewpoints on all aspects to successful long term investing in Thai stocks. In early 2017, I turned increasingly Thai stocks frustrated -and so bearish. But the massive SET drop of in mid March 2020, was a "game changer"!
Why are US stocks and others in general doing rather well, while (its) economies are barely recovering? Stocks appear overvalued to those whom don't understand that valuations' are inversely related to the level of interest rates, which have gone to zero or even negative in some developed countries. Stock prices are often driven by liquidity and sentiment buoyant in these dire times -but getting better with a CV19 vaccine roll out, en masse. Stock markets are always forward looking. As/if US interest rates increase both in the US and in Thailand this will work against stock prices, especially highly valued technology stocks. But at the same time, economies are now coming back due to massive vaccination in the developed world now taking place along with plenty of pent-up demand besides government mega-spending. How sustainable this is, is yet to be seen. In the meantime the key is to own fundamental solid companies which pay high dividends, my forte on location, since 1989.
IF you are interested in a contributing membership contact me directly with a short intro of yourself at: paularen@gmail.com With over 30 years on location, full time engaged in Thai stocks and with a previous professional investor background at the high level. View my resume here: https://thaistocks.com/content/about-us-0***
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"In SE Asia there are many great stock investor opportunities due to the mega institutions most only chase big companies. In fact some 70% of the Thai economy is generated by smaller or mid-sized firms. Hence there are real "diamonds in the rough"...and these "taste great and are less filling"... but you will not find them in billion dollar institutional portfolios' and rarely advocated by Thai brokers nor written up in the local biz. press." Paul A. Renaud.
Thaistocks.com excels at investor performance over time through the rational and responsible value investing concept -as seen objectively from a pro's investor point of view. Value investing here means growing earnings per share over time along with high dividends in understandable & what I perceive to be good investments, away from the tourist industry. We are not stock promoters nor punters, never receive any remuneration of any kind from any listed company! We here in the past published responsible & unbiased viewpoints, uninterrupted since 1997.
As here documented to members all along: the full track record from year 2003 to inclusive 2015. Since year 2003, I regularly posted 6-month model portfolio's which can be accessed only by members. Hence a documented track record as witnessed by all members all along until year 2016.
"I have appreciated your viewpoints this past year and am very happy with the results Thanks again. I much look forward to reading the most intelligent economic/investment writing about Thailand to be found anywhere in the world. Especially in terms of the performance of my investments. But also in expanding my knowledge of the workings of the SET." A Member comment.
Comments given in the past by professionals: Click here - 
30 year expertise, viewpoints and independent research -full time- so to help create new wealth through the value and high dividend investing theme. This through my long on location expert knowledge, experience and strong connections in the segment of smaller and medium-sized Thai companies. Thai Stock Exchange is open to foreign investors since 1976.
I know it like very few others here.. despite many traps for some of us its the right and rational way to higher investor returns over time -along with often lower than market volatility.
We are not stock promoters and never receive fees/payments of any kind from any company we follow or view positively here, or otherwise! I focus 100% on what I do best which is finding high dividend stock "gems" and then so shared to our members. Reputation of companies is key to investing and here my 30 years experience, besides objectivity, is paramount. ****
For 30 on location I have with focus, passion, high ethics and determination excelled giving viewpoints as seen from the Thai stock value investors' point of view.. The many years continued model portfolio's track record -as witnessed by our members all along- is validated as follows:
Calendar Years: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014:
% change each year: 88% (14)% 82% 32% 42% (40)% 55% 50% 17.8% 45% (year 2012), 12.8% (year 2013), 37.95% (year 2014)
Simple average, over past 12 years: 34.7 %, per year.
Geometric average, over past 12 years: 28.8 %, per year.
Above shown track record is with no financial leverage...no stock shorting or hedging/puts which larger portfolios employ. I realize, this is "armchair investing" and not necessarily my own, yet it's all based on documented model portfolio to contributing members all along. Of course future returns will go down and up and there are never guarantees. Past performance is never a guarantee to future returns and since 2016 smaller and mid cap stock have overall much lagged the SET index, as I here have started to point already 3 years ago. This lagging has continued well into late 2019. But the covit-19 horror has become a game changer and a new order emerged....since I here called the bottom in early April 2020, Thai smaller cap stocks have been performance stars!
To know more about -and to contact us click Click here -
Best Regards,
Paul A. Renaud.
www.thaistocks.com -since April 30, 1997. Ended as is on April 30 2024.
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Paul A. Renaud
from Morgan Stanley USA, to over 30 years on location analyzing the Thai stock market.
"Devoted to growth, low valuations and high dividends." " Integrity is my competitive advantage".
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www.thaistocks.com
