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paulren's picture

Stock prices are rarely rationally valued -for good reasons.


Contrary to the theory oriented stock gurus which love to teach this, stock prices are rarely rationally valued for good reasons. To think otherwise is an investor trap.

I am ever so often asked about what is fair equity valuation. How do you properly value...

paulren's picture

Surprising to many, but not me, group of good stocks = preferred to cash-alternative.

Markets are forward looking, and they see the vaccine/saviour light at the end of the tunnel as well as Cash being debased over time, not least due to all the Govt.s money new printing.

The SET index has had a formidable run over the past couple of months....

paulren's picture

Model portfolio an interim update, December 5th 2020.

An interim monthly informal update.  Just recently I added FSMART(7.15) at 6.80 Baht and STGT(74.25) at 75 Baht to this model portfolio. STGT since paid a 1.25 Baht interim dividend and will split its stock 2 for 1 very shortly.

paulren's picture

Investor comments from the recent past. Year 2020.

Investor apathy.   Beware in becoming or are already an investor "pre-mortem". Where one deliberately most only considers the worst case scenarios and so solely see and fear downside in any investment -resulting in never dare to take the plunge. Stuck in investor mediocrity for years, just as...

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Fsmart is the undisputed number 1 automated service platform operator in Thailand.

FSMART is the undisputed leader of networks of automated and integrated financial services, easy to use, convenient, fast and secure. With automatic dispensers -bringing payment services and much more to millions lower income Thai's, which are mostly well removed from the current economic malaise.  (CV19, Tourism, Hotels, Exports, Politics) ...

paulren's picture

STGT the favoured Thai stock -well removed from Thai economic malaise.

STGT is now my favored Thai quality, ample liquid trading, high growth stock -well removed from the Thai economy/politics/tourism/middle income trap.

Thai STGT (72) just now trades at a current p/e of around 16, yet its earnings keep (and will keep) soaring going forward as it...

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The vicissitudes-intricacies of interpretation -and many traps.

The intricacies of loose language interpretation and the known and unknown traps/difficulties this represent.

Residing in Thailand for so many years investing/building/living and more I often endured the difficulty in language and interpreting at many different levels.  Just to define terminology, translation means written -and interpreting...

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The model portfolio update, post/during much US and Thai turmoil.

An interim model portfolio update, post/during much US and Thai turmoil.

Looks like my pre US election prediction here will turn out right. As it was in 2016. :)  And if you include the swing states it was/will in fact be by more than...

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Thai IPO's -who knows?

Lots of self praise on Thai IPO's in the business press here and by the SET -before and after.

One key reason Thai IPO's do well on the first few trading days here is because Thai speculators' day traders, pounce on it only to sag later. But...

paulren's picture

Investor thoughts today, on a rainy day.

Select buy ideas on any further SET sell off, if you dare on a rainy day.

I expect the market to panic down some more today on the new increased political heat. The market is already very low and to a good extend discounts many unknowns...